The kerosene which moves Italian and European flights is a derivative of oil and for this reason it largely comes from Persian Gulfa route which, however, has been in crisis since February due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuzwhich effectively paralyzed oil tanker traffic in the maritime hub through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil transits. The consequences on the market of jet fuel were immediate: according to Argus Media, one of the most authoritative agencies in the analysis of energy markets, the prices of jet fuel have more than doubled since the start of the conflictwith the blocking of flows from the Persian Gulf which compromised approximately 50% of European imports. In its March 2026 Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that diesel and jet fuel are the most vulnerable refined products to a prolonged loss of Middle Eastern exports, with effects expected in Europe between April and May.
In this context, the first concrete signals in Italy have arrived in four airports: Linate, Bologna, Treviso and Venice. Air BP Italy has communicated to the companies limitations in supplies until at least April 9, 2026, with a ceiling of 2,000 liters per departure on non-priority flights and priority guaranteed to ambulance flights, state flights and connections lasting more than three hours. This is not a generalized block: the main hubs – Rome Fiumicino and Milan Malpensa – were not involved by any Notam. The management company of the Veneto airports itself specified that the restrictions concern a single supplier and that other operators remain active at the same airports.
Seven-month Italian stocks, but the European picture is uneven
The president of ENAC Pierluigi Di Palmacontacted by ANSA, defined the “contingent and marginal” situationwhich produced a domino and media effect between small ports”, excluding an immediate emergency. However, it recognized a structural limit which the crisis has made more visible: the storage capacity of Italian airports is insufficient to withstand prolonged shocks.
Inventory data offers a less alarmist picture in the short term, but with significant differences between countries. According to an analysis by Argus Media based on Eurostat and JODI data, stocks commercial of jet fuel available at the end of 2025 – therefore excluding the mandatory strategic reserves provided for by the IEA regulations and those accumulated from January 1st onwards – guarantee just under two months of autonomy for Italy and Franceabout two and a half months for Denmark and almost four months for Irelandwhich despite producing almost nothing internally has accumulated the largest buffer on the continent. The The United Kingdom is the most exposed countrywith just a month of commercial stocks compared to domestic production that covers only a third of demand. The estimates are theoretical and assume unchanged consumption: they do not take into account logistical bottlenecks, seasonal variations or specific exposures of individual airports. The last kerosene shipment from the Gulf before the Hormuz blockade is expected in European ports around April 10th: from that date, without a reopening of the Strait or sufficient alternative channels, incoming volumes could reduce markedly. For the summer, Ryanair has estimated a concrete risk of interruptions in supplies between 10 and 25% in case the conflict was prolonged between May and June.
What to do if your flight is cancelled
In a situation like this, the passenger is not without protectionbut you need to know what to expect. If the flight is canceled due to lack of fuel, the right to a refund of the ticket or rerouting on an alternative flight is guaranteed by the European regulationtogether with assistance at the airport — meals, possible overnight stay, possibility to communicate. The most delicate point concerns the additional compensation, the one that normally goes from 250 to 600 euros depending on the route: according to Altroconsumo, the company can avoid payment by demonstrating that the cancellation depends on exceptional circumstances not attributable to its responsibility, and the lack of fuel due to an international conflict probably falls into this category.
A specific warning applies to insurance. The policies sold when purchasing the ticket by the main companies – EasyJet, Ita Airways, Ryanair – expressly exclude from reimbursements damages resulting from war, hostilities and war operations. Altroconsumo reports that some Ryanair policies already specify that claims related to current conflicts in the Middle East are not covered. Insurance remains useful to cover medical expenses, baggage and interruptions for personal reasons, but it is not a reliable protection against the risks linked to the fuel crisis. For those who have yet to book, the most prudent choice at this stage is find your way around flexible and refundable tickets, prefer direct flights and keep all documentation. In case of cancellation, Altroconsumo reminds you that there is no obligation to accept vouchers or credits: if a cash refund is preferred, the passenger has the right to request it.
