Austria goes to the polls: it is the EU country that depends most on Russian gas

Austria goes to the polls: it is the EU country that depends most on Russian gas

It is the European Union country that depends most on Russian gas imports and risks falling into the hands of the pro-Russian far right. The elections in Austria on September 29 could mark a real watershed, not only for Vienna but also for the rest of Europe. Having a member state that still depends so heavily on Moscow for its energy supplies could compromise the efforts of all member states. However, the polls give the lead to Herbert Kikl, Matteo Salvini’s ally, who does not intend to pull the plug on relations with Vladimir Putin.

What the polls say for the Austrian elections

The polls in Austria ahead of the key date of September 29 do not show any party with a lead that would allow them to obtain an absolute majority. The far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is slightly ahead, having maintained an unclear position with Moscow since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The government of the Austrian parliamentary republic is currently led by Karl Nehammer of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), who came to power in December 2021. The Green Party is also in the governing coalition. This is the first alliance between these two parties at the federal level. The People’s Party and the Green Party will try to compete with the FPO for the largest number of elected representatives, but they are still slightly behind, at least in pre-election interviews.

Austria’s dependence on Russian gas

Since Moscow invaded its neighbor in 2022, while the European Union has moved to rapidly replace Russian gas imports, Austria has been slow to do so. In July, Vienna was still importing 83 percent of its gas from Russia, while by 2023 the average share of gas imported from Moscow into the EU had already fallen to 15 percent. The search for alternative energy sources has so far been unsuccessful. And for the other 26 states of the European bloc, this continued dependence is becoming a problem.

The Austrian Greens are pushing for a faster transition, but their influence in the current government is significantly less than that of the People’s Party. Chancellor Nehammer has also pledged to free the country from Moscow’s yoke, focusing on imports from Germany and Italy. “The high dependence on Russian gas supplies represents a major economic and security risk for Austria,” the Ministry of Economy said in a press release, arguing that it is “essential for the security of our country to further reduce gas consumption and stop purchasing Russian gas.”

The risks of a sudden Russian gas disruption

The far-right FPÖ, which polls put at around 27-29 percent, has a different opinion. According to leader Herbert Kickl, Russian gas must continue to be part of the Austrian energy mix. However, the lack of a clear distancing from Moscow is isolating his party, which is unable to find support for forming a coalition. Barring any surprises, even with a minimal advantage, the People’s Party should win again, which depending on the results could continue with the Greens or even veer towards the Social Democrats. The slow and cumbersome political times risk not coinciding with the commercial ones.

Wien Energie, the power company that dominates Vienna’s energy landscape, said in September that it would abandon Russian gas starting in 2025. But Ukraine said it would not renew its agreement with Gazprom to transport Russian gas to Austria, which is due to expire at the end of 2024. If nothing changes, an energy crisis is on the horizon for Vienna. And according to domestic experts, a sudden interruption of Russian supplies could increase wholesale gas prices by around 20 percent within two to six months. A blow to the Austrian economy, which is already suffering from rising inflation.