After 12 days of open war between Iran and Israelthe US bombing of Sunday 22 June of the 3 sites of the Iranian nuclear program of Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan seems to have accelerated an agreement for the ceased. From On Tuesday 24 June a fragile truce is in force Between Tel Aviv and Tehran. While the Israeli and US intelligence services and the International Agency for Atomic Energy try to understand the extent of the damage suffered by the Iran nuclear program, the international markets have already breathed a sigh of relief. At least for the moment, in fact, the Threatened possibility that Tehran close the Hormuz Strait (controlled precisely by Iran) as a retaliation for the Israeli attacks that began on the night of June 13. A possible closure of the Hormuz Strait would impact on imported oil prices (20% of world oil passes on) on which Europe and Asian economies depend.
What is the Strait of Hormuz and what this strategic junction is for
The Strait of Hormuzlocated between Oman and Iran, Connect the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. In its point of less width, the coast of the two countries is separated from a stretch of sea of just 34 kilometers. The whole north coast of the Persian Gulf belongs to Iran, while on the other side there are countries such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman. From this strait they pass through About 20 million barrels pass every daynamely a fifth of the world oil offer (especially that of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Iran), and more than A tenth of the gas in its liquid formfrozen and then embarked in the ports of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Given the passage of hundreds of ships every day, the Hormuz Strait is organized in navigation lanes regulated by a traffic separation scheme To avoid collisions between boats. Each lane, one in entrance and one out of the strait, is 3 kilometers wide.
What the closure of the Hormuz Strait would entail for Europe
A possible closure of the strait, even partial, would have immediate repercussions on the price of oil in the financial markets. Some analysts have calculated that a possible Iranian retaliation would cause an increase in the price of 20 dollars per barrel over a few weeks, reaching a Price of 100 dollars per barrel by the end of 2025 (Today, June 25, the price oscillates around $ 70). This scenario does not scare only Europe, which after the beginning of the war in Ukraine has tried to free itself from its historic energy dependence towards Russia by choosing the Gulf countries as new suppliers (at the moment The European Union buys about 400,000 barrels per day passing through the Hormuz route).
The concern of Asian economies
A huge recourse would come mainly for economies in very strong acceleration of Asian countrieswhich are the More dependent on the oil imported by the Gulf States. For example, theIndia In the first three months of 2025 he imported Every day through the narrow 2.1 million barrels, while South Korea 1.7 million. In particular, a block or limitation of exports would have very serious consequences for the China, which buys 90% of the Iranian ray exports Under penalties and for several months he has been fighting with a growth of GDP below the expectations of the Chinese Communist Party. According to estimates, in the first three months of 2025 Beijing purchased almost 5 and a half million barrels per day from Iranthat is, a quarter of the total that passes daily for the Strait. Also for this reason, some analysts are skeptical that Iran would really be willing to block traffic in the Persian Gulf, given that this measure would damage one of the few profitable sectors of its economy. A blow that the country in liquidity crisis for years has not been able to realize itself. As Matteo Villa, Senior Analyst and Director DataLab di Ipra (Institute for International Political Studies), said in a recent interview with Matteo Villa), This would be a “suicide” decision Why “Closing Hormuz would mean exposing themselves even at closing, which would be devastating for a country like Iran that depends on the export of this matter abroad. But it would also like to say causing a very strong recession in the world, hitting at random. In this way, in fact, the United States would not be hit but also and above all the current strong oil importers that are in the world, including China and Europe».
