Difficult to say if Elon Musk’s announcement of wanting to give life to a new political formation, the American Party, has unleashed more panic or curiosity. Certainly it has not passed indifferent. Panic a lot, especially in the environments close to Donald Trump, who obviously caught you a not exactly friendly signal. The president hastened to say that “a third party is useless” and Steve Bannon, ideologue, mentor and street companion of Trump has stamped Musk as “a stupid” (to which Mr. Tesla’s prompt response, “You are a drunkard”, in an escalation that now marks, unfortunately, the level of the public confrontation of our times, so polluted by the continuous scream without social brakes).

But also a lot of curiosity, with observers, Americans and not, to calculate the real impact on the US policy of a new possible Made in Musk party. All to remember, rightly, that in the United States the “third unbelieves” have never brought well to those who had made themselves protagonist, and if they ever helped someone to win at the expense of another (Bill Clinton knows something about it, who benefited from the disturbing action against the Republicans implemented by the billionaire Ross Perot).

Who is favored by the American electoral system

The American electoral system, starting from that for the members of the congress, is structured on a uninominal rigid for which those who arrive first wins, such as to discourage every possible “third way”. Those who want to run to the White House must essentially be able to marry in one of the two existing parties, even if it does not come from either of the two (Donald Trump himself had all the characteristics of an “independent”, set out from the ranks and strategies of the Republicans, but has ended up joining you).

The observers and politicians who highlighted the effect of a possible American Party in the Midterm elections of next year, a fundamental test for Trumpism, were in smaller number. Senate in American Chamber see only a slight prevalence of the Republicans, but most of the time you dance on the numbers and just think what happened a few days ago in the Senate when the fundamental budget measure on which Trump had based his economic policy passed only for a vote (moreover that of the vice -president Vance).

Musk’s opportunity: the mid -mandate elections

It will therefore be enough that Musk’s American Party wins a handful of senators or deputies at the Midterterm to obtain a decisive weight during the US policy. What is anything but impossible, at least to see the first polls that Musk has shown, not to mention the remarkable ability to influence the masses that his social media, his billions will have and in general his ability to “pierce the video” and impose himself on attention. Calculations that certainly are doing to the White House and that cannot let sleep sleep for the president and his staff sleep.

Then there is a further aspect that must be reported, also not very calm for Trump. Musk’s attempt – provided that something really comes out, and everything does not set in the space of a post on X – it could in fact give voice, and certainly it will do so, to that part of the republican world, and not only, that it is not happy with the second version of the Trump (little even of the first, in reality), and that in recent months he has remained subtraccia because when you win the maneuver. The president is still too strong because someone raises his voice.

Who can help Mr Tesla in the clash with Trump

It is the world linked to the “old” Gop, the Grand Old Party, the most liberal inspiration, little or not at all inclined to the populist temptations to which the president has accustomed, against his fagnate, who for example in his battle for the duties has a liberal conception of Reaganian memory, always contrary to any hypothesis of commercial war. Not to mention the perplexities that arouse the anti western and pro -Western steering of The Donald in that spreading world. If this valiant universe, of interests, of relationships, found an initial catalyst in Musk, here someone seeing a more weakened president could then find the courage to put his head out of the sand.

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