Penalties against Russia, relations with Israel and common defense expenses. These are the points that have marked an evident fracture between the 27 leaders of state and government at the European Council of Brussels. The node of how to finance the increase in defense expenses that promises to be from 2035 remains unsolved, while in commercial negotiations with the USA the negotiation could finally get to the heart, with the arrival of the waiting counter -proposal from the USA.
Weapons popped up
The main point of the summit was the defense. European leaders did not hide their skepticism in finding the resources necessary to finance the increase in military expenses, following the NATO agreement reached in the Aja only 24 hours before, which provides for an expense of 5 percent of the GDP by 2035. Although the goal agreed by the members of the alliance, as explained by the foreign minister Antonio Tajani, is not accompanied by the intermediate targets, it is a very high level of expenditure, Especially for those countries that have scarce margins of maneuver in the budget and which, most likely, will have to cut social spending to finance the military one. A choice, this politically risky and electorally penalizing for any government.
In addition, the Rearm Europe plan, presented by the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, was judged insufficient by several European leaders. On the initiative of the President of the Italian Council Giorgia Meloni, some heads of state and government have questioned the flexibility margins provided for by the current stability pact, asking the European Commission for a corrective intervention to guarantee adequate resources to defense investments.
The relaunch of military spending in Europe asks a crucial question: where to find resources to support an accelerated rearmament, necessary to fill the gap accumulated with the other powers from the end of the Cold War. At the moment, the defense remains a national competence and the only common instrument, the EDIP fund, has just 1.5 billion euros. The idea of introducing Eurobond for the defense divides the twenty -seven. Germany and the Netherlands, in particular, remain against: “Absolutely not”, has clarified a European diplomatic source. But something moves: countries once rigorists such as Finland and Denmark are reviewing their positions, aware of the limits of national public finances in the face of the Russian threat. Even the Danish premier puts Frederiksen, a former champion of the frugal front, launched an appeal to “spend, spend”.
In the conclusions of the European Council there is no mention of the common debt, but Italy, France and Spain do not intend to set aside the theme. The Spanish premier Pedro Sanchez reiterated that “security and defense are European public goods” and must therefore be financed with common resources. The theme, although not solved, remains central and will return to the next leaders. Meanwhile, the leaders have commissioned the Commission to present a roadmap by October to identify tools and resources to support the new EU military ambitions.
The relationship with Israel
But the theme on which the 27 have split most is the adoption of formal sanctions against Israel for military actions in the West Bank and Gaza. In fact, it is not possible to find a meeting point on the agreement of the Association existing between the European Union and the Jewish State and its possible suspension for the violation of article 2, as requested on 20 May from 19 Member States to the high representative for foreign and safety policy Kaja Kallas. The Member States remain divided despite the owner of the foreign policy of the blockade presented a document that has lined up all the violations of human rights committed by the Government of Israel in the strip. The text of the agreed conclusions is therefore limited to “taking” act of the Kallas relationship, after Berlin, Rome, Vienna and Budapest have opposed the suspension of the association agreement with Israel, preferring to keep a diplomatic channel open. It was therefore decided to postpone the discussion to the Foreign Council of July 15, even if there are few signs of possible concrete developments.
On the war in Iran the EU is as always divided (and as always it is looking for)
In the meantime, EU leaders are compact in asking Israel to stop the bombings on Gaza and allow the entry of humanitarian aid. The approved text is harder than the past: he denounces a “catastrophic humanitarian situation”, asks for an “immediate respite”, the liberation of the hostages by Hamas, the end of hostilities and the removal of the block on Gaza. The violence of the colonists in the West Bank are also condemned and new sanctions are promised against Hamas and against Israeli extremists.
The issue of Ukraine
As for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has connected with EU leaders in videoconference, since the situation, with the Russian bombings, is such that it had to return home. Conclusions at 26 on Ukraine, for the opposition of Viktor Orban’s Hungary, according to which Kiev’s adhesion to the EU “would drag us into war”. It is therefore possible, as far as we learn, that one ended up disorciting the process of adhesion of Ukraine from that of Moldova. Zelensky, in his speech, asked for the reduction of the Russian oil price roof: “A 45 dollar roof could help bring peace closer. But in order for it to be true and lasting it is necessary to set a price of $ 30 per barrel”. Hit Russian oil revenues remains the key, in its vision, to dry up the resources of the war machine of Vladimir Putin and intensify the pressure on Moscow.
On the penalties in Moscow, the 27 would have agreed to extend them for another 6 months, including freezing of over 200 million euros in the central bank activity, while they are refining the details for the 18th pack of penalties against Russia. Leaders also spoke of financial aid to the country invaded by Russia: if the war in Ukraine continues, it will be necessary to think about how to continue supporting it.
The conclusions also speak of Syria and Lebanon. There was also talk of China (but without conclusions) and competitiveness, with the usual references to the need to remove the barriers that continue to hinder the functioning of the internal market, including the union of savings and investments, the rebranding of the banking union, for years for the resistance of the Member States.
