During the devastating earthquake that hit the South-East of Türkiye in 2023, the early alert system for earthquakes developed by Google did not work as it should have had. According to what was admitted by the same company, on February 6, 2023 Only 469 people received the most critical messagethe one who invites you to act immediately, while estimating that About 10 million people in the affected area could have received itwith a potential margin of advance of 35 seconds to save himself from the earthquake of magnitude 7.8. A much larger number – about half a million – instead received a lower alert, less urgent, designed for light vibrations and that does not activate visible notifications if the phone is in silent mode. At that time, Google declared that his system had “performed well».
Today, over 2 years after that tragic event, the Mountain View giant has openly recognized i Limits of its algorithm. In a post-event simulation, Google’s same engineers found that, if the system had correctly detected the intensity of the shocks, he could have sent timely notices to millions of people. This episode raised doubts aboutreliability of technology In contexts in which it represents the only instrument of seismic alert.
How the Android Earthquake Alerts system of Google works
The system Aea (Android Earthquake Alerts), developed by Google, uses i movement sensors present in telephones with Android operating system for detect seismic waves. When a sufficient number of devices detect a vibration compatible with an earthquake, the data is sent to the Google servers, which in a few seconds can estimate the position of the epicenter and the intensity of the earthquake, and send an alarm to those who are in the area.
There are two main types of alert: Take actionthe most serious, which activates a strong sound, shows a message on the screen and interrupts any other phone activity, even the “not disturbing” mode; And Be awaredesigned for milder shaking, which shows only a discreet notification and can go unnoticed, especially if the phone is silenced. The first earthquake of February 6, 2023 – which reached a magnitude of 7.8 – occurred at 04:17 in the morning (local time), when most people slept. At that moment, a Take Action alarm could have made the difference between life and death.
But the system erroneously estimated the intensity of the shaking: the initial evaluation was of a magnitude between 4.5 and 4.9far from reality. This error prevented the system of Activate the alarm more critical for most users. The most effective alert was sent only to a few hundred devices, 469 To be exact, a negligible figure compared to the millions of potentially involved people. Google researchers, later, reported in the magazine Science the details of what went wrong, talking about “limitations to detection algorithms».
Subsequently, simulating the same event with the corrections made, the system has produced over 10 million Take Action notices, and more than 67 million Be Aware Notifications for more distant users. This shows that technology can be much more effective, but also how sensitive to the precision of its first estimates. As Google researchers explain, one of the main obstacles is precisely the calibration of the algorithmthat is, the ability of the software to accurately recognize the real intensity of the shocks based on the data received. A margin of error in those first seconds can compromise the entire system response.
Investigations on the incident
There BBC He investigated what happened, seeking for months testimonies of people who had received the Take Action notice before the earthquake. Despite hundreds of interviews in the affected areas, no person who had received it in time was found. This has fueled the criticisms of some experts, according to which it is problematic that it took more than two years to clarify what went wrong. As he said Elizabeth Reddyprofessor at the Colorado School of Mines:
We are not talking about a small event – they died of people – and we have not seen a representation of this warning in the way we would have liked.
It should also be said that the Android Earthquake Alerts system is designed as support to any national alert infrastructures, and not like them substitute. In countries where these infrastructures do not exist or are not fully operational, as in large areas of Türkiye, however, the responsibility falls de facto on this technology. This is why some seismologists warn against dealing completely with automated tools not completely validated, suggesting that transparency on the performance and limits of these systems must be an absolute priority.
According to Google, the system is now active in almost 100 countries and continues to evolve thanks to thePost-event analysis. The company stresses that each earthquake provides new data to refine the algorithm. But the Turkish case reminds us that, however powerful, technology, precision, speed of communication and responsibility in the management of errors can be fundamental to save human lives.
