According to some estimates published by the Venture Capital company Konvoy, Grand Theft Auto 6 could generate a turnover of 7.6 billion dollars in the two months following the launchexpected for the May 26, 2026. Record forecast does not only concern the world of video games: analysts suggest that the title could represent the largest commercial event in the history of entertainment, overcoming any other launch, including that of films and TV series. But is this figure at first glance hyperbolic, is plausible? Some data seem to support an unprecedented initial explosion, but the mathematics of the videogame market requires some reflections. Even assuming an average sale price of 80 dollars (as well as the existence of premium versions of up to 100 dollars) to reach 7.6 billion would serve about 95 million copies sold in just two months. To understand the enormity of this figure, consider that GTA 5 – which had one of the most profitable launches in history – took five years to exceed 100 million copies sold. And that game was available on multiple platforms compared to GTA 6, which instead will debut only on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/s. Konvoy’s somewhat optimistic expectations will probably be disregarded.
How much GTA 6 could sell in the first two months
Let’s start from Numbers of GTA 5. The title collected 1 billion dollars in the first three days from the launch In 2013, marking a record then considered unreachable. But since then the market has changed, has expanded, and Rockstar Games – The study that develops the saga – today enjoys an even greater global notoriety. The videogame industry itself has grown dramatically in terms of the public and turnover. All this strengthens the hypothesis that GTA 6 can easily exceed the numbers of the predecessor in the first weeks. Konvoy even estimates a collection of 2 billion dollars in the first monthwith the achievement of the “draw” of the initial investment (estimated at 2 billion) already within the first 30 days from the release of the title. In such a scenario, the economic sustainability of the project would be guaranteed in record time.
Because 7.6 billion dollars in two months is unlikely
To hypothesize that the game can generate 7.6 billion in just 60 days, however, requires a more rigorous reflection. Assuming an average unitary price of 80 dollars, to imply the sale of about 95 million copies. But the catchment area of the current consoles is limited: approximately 77.8 million PS5 are estimated and between 30 and 35 million Xbox Series X/s in circulation. This would bring The total of the platforms compatible with GTA 6 to just over 110 million. The penetration rate necessary to reach 95 million copies sold should therefore be of85-90%: a very high percentage, unrealistic also for a title with a planetary call like GTA 6. We have voluntarily excluded from this calculation the PC segment, given that the title at launch will not be available for desktop platforms, an important slice of the market that Rockstar historically exploits in a second phase, sometimes with improved versions of its titles.
Then there is the question of consumer behavior. Today about 80% of videogame purchases take place through digital download. This facilitates immediate distribution but, paradoxically, compresses the initial sales window in a more clear way. Those who are really interested in GTA 6 will probably buy it on the day of the release or in the first weeks. After the initial wave, the sales curve tends to flatten quickly. This phenomenon is known as “post-launch sales decay” and is observable in almost all blockbuster securities. For all these reasons It is unlikely that GTA 6 genera 7.6 billion in turnover in just two months.
