The vote of the small brands, expected every beyond reasonableness as a vote of local miderter, in the end the result considered more likely by the most attentive observers. The outgoing governor, a man of brothers of Italy and Melonian of strict observance, was re -elected, defeating the MEP and “historian” mayor of Pesaro Matteo Ricci. The Marche vote, in a return of regional renewals that includes Veneto, Puglia, Campania and Calabria, was particularly awaited because it was considered the only one in which you could really change course, compared to the five -year period just passed. The confirmation of Acquaroli, on the other hand, unless sensational surprises in the regions that will renew in the coming weeks, lays the foundations to confirm the medium -term consent framework, both looking at the past Be, above all, the near future.

The immobility of the borders

Comparing today’s Marche region with homogeneous data from the last elections, in fact, the substantial “immobility” of the borders between the two political blocks can be seen. Inside there are deviations, small variations that can encourage the change of balance in political alliances, both dating back and again. But overall, taking the data of the regional ones of 5 years ago, of the policies that led Giorgia Meloni to Palazzo Chigi, and of the European Championships in early summer 2024, the picture of consent in the Marche It is precisely stable. Almost crystallized. The final data will have late in the evening, but it is already easy to imagine that the distances between the blocks will represent those seen, on the same territory, in the recent past. A stable tendency, how much it is strengthening, gradually, that of the progressive disaffection to the exercise of the vote, which every time records a new minimum and in this vote from Marches stopped at 50% of those entitled, indeed overcoming the point of minor turnout by a few decimal, touched on to the regional of 2015.

What did not work in the center -left

For the center -left, the communication and political strategy of placing the appearance of the most cumbersome enemy, Giorgia Meloni, and to transform an administrative election, did not work for the center -left. If the government referendum was, the government won it. Not even awarded the idea of ​​putting a world tragedy at the center of a local vote, such as that of Gaza, hoping that the imposing mobilization of the squares of these weeks would turn into an turnout against a government that continues to refuse to make even only symbolic gestures, as would be basically the recognition of Palestine. In the end, in a mix between loyalty to its political vote and substantial satisfaction for the government action, Acquaroli beats Ricci, center -right beats Largo Campo, with a large margin.

In a stable context there are no shocks

This small election, in a small region, is not the national test that someone imagined and hoped, of course, but teaches us several things that it is good to always remember. The first, general, is that in the face of consolidated political situations, which have seen distance between the sides over time crystallize over time, it really takes relevant political events to generate a change and defrosting. It happened, in history, and it will continue to happen that at a certain point things change: but, in fact, more often things continue to go as the last and penultimate time went, especially if the overall picture is of stability. A contingent observation is linked to this picture: the center -right retains, down, the same consensus that has had on the last electoral occasions. The center -left, even where it is united in all its components, does not seem to have an expansive capacity beyond its general perimeter, and beyond the sum of its components. Lastly, and to return to the starting point, the forces on the field, when they are measured by the vote, do not show landslides or particular expansions, and not even the varying or reducing of the turnout is distributed in an unequal way. Not even the different electoral and institutional nature of the vote really mixes the cards on the table, so much so that if you take the last European vote as reference, it would be seen that for the brands, in fact, the total sum of the list votes produces results very close to those we analyze today. You want to push the story of a comeback, of a gap that tightens, of an effective candidate: reality remains there, to remember the difference between facts and aspirations.