There NBA basketball season has just begun and, even without being great fans, every year we notice more – watching some action of any match – how the teams set up their game to conclude the action with a 3-point shotthat is, that shot taken outside the arc of the 7.25 meters drawn on the ground. The 3-point shot, introduced for the first time in the season 1979-80has long been a sort of “special weapon”used by players particularly gifted at long range shooting, or by teams looking for a desperate comeback in the final minutes of the game, and used only sporadically. Today, however, the 3-point shot – with the influence of Stephen Curryone of the best shooters in history – is the heart of most of the actions of attack in the NBA, continuously discussed on social media and in “basketball” talk shows between those who claim that too many 3-pointers are being shot and those who believe that this is the right progression of the game. THE 38 3-pointers per game of the 2024/25 season compared to the 16 of 20 years ago, are not just a question of “good play” or fashion: it is a real revolution which passes through mathematics and tactics.
When basketball embraced science: the 3-point shooting revolution
To understand how we arrived at this gaming revolution we need to go back to early 2000swhen technological progress and the first “big data” silently began to intervene in the technical decisions of the main NBA franchises, with advanced statistics which questioned the coaches’ tactical decisions.
The main protagonist of this transformation was Daryl Moreygeneral manager of the Houston Rockets, graduated from MIT and convinced that in basketball, as in finance, it was possible win by using numbers. His analyzes showed something apparently obvious but revolutionary if supported by the data: a 3-point shot is worth 50% more than a 2-point shot, an enormity, and even if it is missed more often, it is capable of produce more points in the long run compared to a frequently hit 2-pointer.
The data was clear: over the years, the percentage of 3-pointers made in a game had stabilized around 35%. So if a team hits a little more than three 3-pointers out of 10, they average 1.05 points per shot. With a two-point shot made instead in 50% of attemptsit is generated 1 point exactly for each shot attempted, but the average of 2-pointers is actually slightly lower, between 45% and 48%so each 2-pointer generates on average 0.95 points. The difference seems minimal, but over dozens of possessions it can make the difference between winning and losing a game.
The explosion of triples and the influence of Steph Curry
This new game mechanism based on the 3-point shot put into practice by the Houston Rockets since the mid-2000s spread rapidly, and many began to talk about “Moreyball“(from the famous book published in 2003: Moneyball) referring to those who began to follow the style of play dictated by the Texan franchise. The teams began to build rosters based on shootersto widen the game and always look for the most “efficient” shot: or a tripleor a shot from under the basket. Everything in between, in this case the “average shot” which had been a feature of basketball legends like Michael Jordan And Kobe Bryantbegan to be considered a pure waste. The game became polarized: either you shoot from outside, or from under the basket. Everything in between becomes of little use to victory.
Starting from the early 1910s, he gave the definitive push towards this new way of setting up the game. Stephen Curry together with his Golden State Warriors. The 3-point shot went from tactic to spectacle, with Curry starting to score from sidereal distances with ease disarming. In the 2015-16 season, in which he won the MVP award unanimously, he attempted more than 11 threes per game on average, hitting them with over 45% of precision. The defenses were simply not ready to face something similar, and each team began to look for their own Curry and try to shoot more and more 3-pointers to imitate the success achieved by Golden State, which between 2015 and 2019 reached 5 Finals consecutive, winning 3.
We moved from the 2010-11 season to the 2018-19 season from 18 shots 3 on average per game at 32with an increase of 78% in just 8 years. In the 2024-25 season, on average teams attempted just under 38 3-pointers per game. 20 years ago, in the 2004-05 season, there were 16, almost the 60% less. It’s not just a question of “good game” or fashion: it’s a real one revolution which passes through mathematics and tactics.
A change that did not only concern the numbers but also the performers who had to take to the parquet. Traditional centers like Shaquille O’Neal or Tim Duncanwho dominated under the basket using strength and centimeters, also had to be good shooters if they wanted to earn their place in the quintet. Nowadays teams no longer just try to get close to the basket, but rather look for the best angle to free a shooter. Coaches talk more and more often about “spacing”, i.e. the art of distributing players in the opponent’s half of the pitch so that each defender has to cover as much space as possible.
The other side of the coin: entertainment or monotony?
This evolution has made basketball faster and more “mathematical”, but not everyone considers it positive. Many former players and historic coaches – like Charles Barkley or Gregg Popovich – they argue that the game is becoming repetitivethat all teams play the same and that the NBA has become great 3-point shooting contest. Others, like Steve Kerrcoach of the Golden State Warriors and the US national team, believe that this is the correct evolution of the game of basketball. Even i fans are divided between those who appreciate the speed of the modern game and those who prefer a more active game under the basket, full of individual and physical duels. As often happens, evolution doesn’t satisfy everyonebut this time the fans’ complaints reached the top of the NBA.
The NBA’s doubts and possible solutions
The league, after listening to the opinions of detractors of the new style of play, fears that an excess of triples could reduce tactical variety, make matches monotonous and, consequently, lose audiencein a period in which the NBA is already in great difficulty in the audience battle against football (NFL) and baseball (MLB).
Among the rumored hypotheses to prevent 3-point attempts in a game from reaching 50% of all attempted shots, there has also been talk of move away the 3-point line further (today it is at 7.25m, compared to 6.75m in European basketball and FIBA competitions) or to insert a new 4 point shotor even to broaden the field to create more spaces for inclusion, but for now these suggestions remain as such.
The same Adam SilverNBA commissioner for over 10 years, has denied that these solutions can be put into practice in the short term, focusing instead on trying to keep the NBA attractive even during the regular season and not just during the Finalswith the recent upheavals ofAll Star Game, which has been losing interest for years, and the inclusion of NBA Cupan intermediate tournament held between November and December.
There solutionFor now, teams that cannot afford to continually shoot from beyond the 3-point arc are looking for it, often bringing the medium-range shot back into vogue by exploiting the spaces that modern defenses allow.
