The new EU budget and the (non) suspension of the agreement with Israel

The new EU budget and the (non) suspension of the agreement with Israel

Next, the European newsletter Today that every Sunday morning tells you what will happen in the European week to come, edited by Alfonso Bianchi (for comments, suggestions or criticisms write to [email protected]).

At the top of the agenda

The mega EU budget – Wednesday 16 the European Commission will present its project for the next multi -year financial framework, the EU budgetary budget. The QFP sets the annual expenditure roofs for the main items of the Community budget (agriculture, cohesion, research, foreign, etc.) for the period 2028-2034i. The last one was worth 1,074.3 billion euros, to which then added 750 billion euros of the extraordinary plan Next Generation EU.

Bad news for Orban – The Commission stressed that the next long -term budget adopts a much more severe approach to violations of the rule of law, placing its respect as a basic condition to receive any funding from the EU. On the defendant’s counter there is above all the Hungary of Orban. Currently, about 18 billion euros intended for Budapest are blocked due to problems related to the rule of law. In the new budget they could be many more.

But also for African countries – A conditionality should also be applied to the revision of spending for international aid. According to an anticipated document by politician, African countries will have to stem the flow of migrants directed to the EU if they want to continue receiving aid from Brussels. “A greater consistency between migration, asylum and external policies is needed to ensure that the external assistance of the Union supports partner countries to manage migration more effectively”, reads the document.

What to do with Israel? – Tuesday 15 the EU Foreign Foreign Ministers should decide the fate of the Israel Association Agreement with the block. This week Tel Aviv offered Brussels a vague pact to increase the flow of aid to Gaza “in the next few days”. The high EU representative, Kaya Kallas, presented it as a victory, but for several governments it is too little and too late, with the humanitarian situation of the strip which is now terrifying.

No suspension – After a revision said that Tel Aviv is violating the clause on the human rights of the agreement, the Foreign Affairs Council will evaluate the options on the field, including a “total suspension” of the agreement, an option that would however require unanimity, and therefore the opposition of several governments (including Italian) will never be approved.

The other hypotheses – However, one could suspend the only commercial part of the association agreement, which could make the entry of Israeli products more difficult to the EU market, a move that would require only a qualified majority, or ban at least the products from the occupied West Bank. The impression is that Europe will continue to be watching and will not even choose these very light options to stop Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

Face to face – The Foreign Ministers of Israel and Palestine should participate in the meeting within the Southern EU-Vicinated Ministerial Uncuecare which will be held on Monday 14 in Brussels. The two sides often meet in the United Nations, but it would be the first time that they would be represented at high level in Brussels since the beginning of the war in Gaza on 7 October 2023.

Other hot themes

Trump’s letter – Trump sent a letter to the EU, announcing 30% duties on all European products starting from August 1st, despite the negotiations for a commercial agreement are still in progress. And he threatened to increase them, if Europe will allow themselves to respond with countermeasures. The twenty -seven ministers will discuss the EU trade council on Monday 14. Europe will have to decide whether to bend to the US president, or show courage and show muscles. The countermeasures have already been prepared, you just have to decide whether to put them in the field or lower your head.

The first EU duties – And precisely on Monday 14 the first EU duties against the United States will come into force, duties that will affect 21 billion euros of US products. These measures had been approved in response to Trump’s decision of March to impose 25 percent rates on imports of steel and aluminum from the EU, but they had then been suspended to encourage negotiations, despite the fact that the US duties remained in force.

Antifrode – Wednesday 16, the Commission should also present the “White Paper on the review of the EU Anti Fraud Architecture”, the result of an analysis that began in March 2025 and based on a study formed in two parts: a map of the current system of agencies that contribute to the fight against the phenomenon (such as Olaf, Eppo, Europe and Eurojust) and a critical analysis of its inefficiencies, including fragmentation, Articulated governance. The document will propose a plan to streamline the structure, improve coordination and sharing data, technical and financial equipment, and strengthen monitoring and transparency through common tools.

The tough immigration – Friday 18 in Grainau, Germany, the ministers of the interior of France, Poland, Austria, Denmark and the Czech Republic meet under the aegis of the German minister Florian Huber Dobrindt, to give impetus to a more rigid migratory policy at community level. The EU Commissioner for Migration should also participate in the summit, Magnus Brunner. The initiative wants to follow up on the “hard” turning point wanted by the chancellor Friedrich Merz. The goal is to transform national measures (such as the return of controls to the German border) into structural reforms of the entire European asylum system

EU Council

Agriculture and fishing – During the Agriculture and Fishing Council on Monday 14, the Danish Presidency will present its work program for the second half of 2025 in public session. At the center: simplification, innovation, green transition and greater competitiveness for farmers, fishermen and food producers. Among the priorities also the punctual adoption of fishing opportunities for 2026. Ministers will also discuss national and European initiatives to diversify the protein sources in human and animal feeding.

The point on China – On Monday 14, EU trade ministers will also discuss economic relations with China, in view of the bilateral summit scheduled at the end of July, a summit that is more symbolic than substantial. Beijing is for the EU partner, competitor and systemic rival: the comparison will focus on the balance of the commercial relationship, the reciprocity and the reduction of strategic dependencies. Among the dossiers on the agenda: diversification of supply chains, protection of European industry and fair competition conditions.

EU budget – Friday 18th at the General Affairs Council, the European Affairs Ministers will discuss the first package of the Commission proposals on the EU post-2027 budget. The new multi -year financial framework will be at the center of a first political confrontation between 27. On the agenda, Spain’s request to include Catalan, Basque and Galician in EU regulation on official languages, a proposal, a proposal, which has been stopped for months, that the socialist premier Sanchez has made to maintain the support of the independence to his government, but which is considered a waste of money and energy by different member countries.

Central EU-American Relations – On Monday 14, the first association of association between the EU and the six Central America countries will be held in Brussels, one year after the entry into force of the association agreement. The summit will be chaired by Kaja Kallas and the Danish minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, and will see the participation of the heads of Costa Rica diplomacy, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. On the agenda: biregional relationships, ongoing crisis, migrations, illegal trafficking, climate, ia and economic cooperation.

European Parliament

The examination of the budget – Wednesday 16, immediately after the official presentation by the Commission, the deputies of the Budget Commission will discuss the proposal for the next multi -year financial framework with Commissioner Piotr Serafin. At the center of the comparison also the question of one’s own resources, a crucial node to give financial legs to the ambitions of the Union.

Ukraine and enlargement – Tuesday 15 the Foreign Affairs Commission will take stock of the progress of the Ukraine membership path. The deputies will evaluate the state of internal reforms, respect for the state of law and democracy, and the impact of war, in a context in which the support of Europe remains fundamental.

European semester – Tuesday 15 Economic Affairs Commissions and employment will discuss the recommendations of the European Semester package with the Vice -President Roxana Mîzatu and Commissioner Dombrovskis. The analysis will focus on the socio-economic and tax measures suggested by the Commission for each Member State for next year.

The Danish program – From Monday 14 to Thursday 17, the Danish ministers will illustrate the priorities of the Presidency of the EU Council to the various parliamentary commissions. Simplification, competitiveness and green transition are among the key themes on which Copenhagen intends to leave their mark by the end of 2025.

No means no – On Monday 14, the commissions of civil freedoms and rights of women will discuss a proposal for the relationship of the Scheuring-Wielgus and inciring MEPs, who asks the commission to propose a common definition of rape that is based on consent. The goal is to harmonize national legislation, fill the legal gaps and align the EU right to the Istanbul Convention to strengthen the fight against sexual violence.

Empty houses and housing crisis – On Monday 14, the Commission of the European Parliament dedicated to the housing crisis continues the cycle of auditions concentrating on the theme of empty homes. The deputies will listen to experts and concrete examples on how to deal with the inactivity of the building heritage, often the subject of speculation, and how to reintegrate it into the market for the benefit of citizens. Among the solutions discussed: incentives of the European social fund and synergies with EU initiatives such as Renovation Wave.

Climate law – On Monday 14, the Environment Commission will hold an exchange of opinions with the Commission on the climate law and on the proposal of the modification regulations that establishes the framework to achieve climate neutrality. Thanks to a coup d’état of the PPE, the radical right group of patriots for Europe will guide the classroom negotiations on the new EU climatic objective, a role that could derail the goal of blocking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040.

Other events

Enlargement and social dialogue – Wednesday 16 and Thursday 17 July the European Economic and Social Committee hosts the high -level forum on enlargement in Brussels, with representatives of Candidate Countries and EU institutions. At the center of the works: the role of social dialogue, civil society and youth participation in the future union. Among the speakers: Maida Gorčević (Montenegro), Orhan Murtzani (North Macedonia), Fernando Sampedro (Spain) and Commissioner Šefčovič. On July 16, Cese will also host debates with the commissioners Glenn Micallef and Marie Bjerre on young people, transparency and priority of the Danish presidency.

Young socialists in Paris – From 17 to 20 July Paris hosts the 17th congress of the Young European Socialists (Yes), the youth organization of the PSE. After the previous edition of Barcelona in 2023, delegates from all over Europe find themselves renewing officers, define political strategies and advance platforms on key issues: social justice, climate, rights and democratic innovation.

Philosa at the steering wheel of Stellantis – Friday 18 July in Amsterdam the extraordinary general assembly of Stellantis, will be called to ratify the appointment of Antonio Filosa in the board as an executive administrator. The choice represents a fundamental step in the consolidation of the group leadership during a challenging phase: Filosa led the growth of Fiat and Jeep in South America, the expansion of the Jeep Avenger in Europe and has renovated US operations.