Elly Schlein rushes to Tuscany to share the flashes of Eugenio Giani’s confirmation and enjoys the victory she has been chasing for some time, and which after the defeats in Marche and Calabria gives her some political breath back. Tuscany was never really up for grabs, but if the challenge had ended with Alessandro Tomasi just three or four points behind Giani, the PD crisis would certainly have exploded. The delay with which the centre-right made the candidacy of the young mayor of Pistoia official did not help the challenger, and the widespread perception among Tuscans that an alternative was not realistically possible certainly influenced both the turnout (47-odd, the lowest ever) and the centre-right’s result itself.

The Tuscan vote certifies that the right-wing wind seen fifteen days ago in the Marche and last week in Calabria, on the banks of the Arno, did not blow. Although, all things considered, Giani took more or less the percentages of five years ago added to those of the 5 stars who ran alone in 2020. In these times and with these moonlights, a result that is anything but obvious. Furthermore – another aspect that will please the Dem secretary – both the Democratic Party and AVS did well in the list votes, while they once again defeated the 5S. Given the creeping competition between Schlein and Conte for the future leadership of the coalition, the Nazarene will breathe a sigh of relief.

The positive notes for the secretary, all in all not negligible, however stop here. Today Schlein rejoices at Giani’s clear statement, but no one can forget that until two months ago both she and the regional leaders of the Democratic Party had tried in every way to get rid of the outgoing governor in favor of a candidate closer to the national secretariat. A tactically crude palace maneuver for two reasons: first, not confirming a governor at the end of the first term means judging his work negatively; second, if the secretary decides to strike, he must be able to close the game, otherwise he will certify his own weakness and strengthen his opponent – in this case, Giani.

The governor was strengthened by the confirmation that he managed to obtain also thanks to the support of the territory (many mayors signed a petition for him, including several Schleinians) and continued on his path. The results have been seen: a consensus that has held up, and has held up well, despite the fact that at a national level neither the party nor the other strong asset of the coalition, i.e. the 5S, are in good health.

Who really rules in Tuscany

More than the affirmation of a coalition project, Giani’s confirmation in the terms in which it occurred therefore signals a vote very linked to the person of the governor: always present in all corners of the region, visible on every occasion – whether it was the inauguration of a bridge or the anniversary of the patron saint of the most remote village. With his forcing against Giani and the consequent rebellion of the base that he aroused in defense of the governor, Schlein essentially called a referendum on the President of the Region: which he won and she lost.

The hard lesson for Schlein

And here we come to the other point. It is true that the Democratic Party emerges well from this Tuscan electoral round, but it is equally true that, at the end of the psalm, the Dems win where reformist candidates assert themselves, i.e. those most distant from the secretary. It happened in the Genoa municipal elections with Silvia Salis, and it could happen in Puglia with Decaro. The t-shirt is that of the Democratic Party, but it is clear that, in a party torn apart by currents and uncertain of its political line, all this cannot be good news for the leader of the Nazarene. The electoral round of the regional elections is far from over (on 23 and 24 November there will be voting in Puglia, Veneto and Campania), but it is not difficult to predict that, once everything is over, this aspect will be put back on the table and put to Elly Schlein’s account.

More or less the same goes for the League. In Tuscany Matteo Salvini had entrusted the compilation of the lists to General Vannacci – who took no prisoners and only put in his own men – and the party did not do well, going from 6.5 percent of the latest European elections and political elections to just over 4 and losing over a third of the votes in percentage terms. It is safe to bet that the skeptical voices within the Northern League towards the “vannacisation” of the party will not take long to make themselves heard.