In the United States, a bipartisan group of senators made up of Democrats and Republicans reached an initial agreement to overcome the shutdownthe temporary suspension of many federal government services. The senators voted the first procedural step of the budget lawthat is, the first decision necessary to start the process that will lead to final approval. The vote ended with 60 votes in favor and 40 againstwith eight Democrats joining Republicans to advance the measure.
This is just a first step towards reopening the government, but the president Donald Trump sees it as “getting closer” to the end of the nightmare shutdownresulting in the forced furlough of many federal employees, delayed or canceled flights, and millions of people seeing their food assistance benefits diminished.
US Shutdown: the roots of the stalemate
In the US system, Congress must approve a spending plan to be sent to the president, who signs it so that it becomes law. After October 1, when the previous federal budget expired, Republicans and Democrats they were unable to reach an agreement to pass a law to fund government services. Despite the Republicans control both houses of Congress, the Senate does not have the 60 votes needed to pass the law, which gave the Democrats some negotiating power.
Negotiations between the two sides dragged on for a long time, making this a shutdown the longest ever recorded in the United States. Several votes aimed at resolving the situation failed, under the pressure of political differences, with Democrats voting against mostly to preserve subsidies for healthcare. However, as the effects of the closure have been felt, some have accepted smaller changes.
Meanwhile, many (but not all) public services are performed by the US government have been temporarily suspendedand approximately 1.4 million federal employees went on unpaid leave or worked without receiving pay. For example, many flights have been canceled or delayed due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, and funding for the Snap program, which provides food assistance, has dried up.
The Senate agreement: contents and unresolved issues
Democrats had conditioned their support for the law on its extension health subsidiesbut the eight Democrats who broke away from their party’s leadership said they agreed to a agreement with the White House and the Republicans for one temporary measure that can finance the government until January, in exchange for a promised future vote on subsidies. With this decision, the bill exceeded the 60 votes needed to pass theparliamentary obstructionism (known as filibuster), requiring in subsequent votes in the Senate only the simple majority.
The agreement includes full funding of the Snap program through September 30, 2026 and a mini-appropriations package which will fund the military, the Department of Agriculture and the legislative branch. The legislation will put an end also to the Trump administration’s mass layoffs of federal employees during the shutdown, will cancel those that have already occurred and will guarantee the back payment. However, now the law still needs to be approved by House of Representatives.
What will happen now: another shutdown on the horizon?
Now that the Senate voted to approve the temporary measuresenators will have the ability to amend legislation with the larger appropriations package. The bill will address further procedural votes in the Senate, for which the group of eight Democrats promised his support. Subsequently, the package will be sent to House of Representativeswhere it will need to be approved before it can be sent to your desk Trump. That means government approval and reopening could still be up in the air delays.
The path to approval in the House could prove complex: “Whatever the outcome of this vote,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said before the resolution passed, “this battle will continue and it must continue.” Even the Dem leader in the House Hakeem Jeffries declared that the Party will not support the billcomplicating approval, with Republicans having a slim majority in the chamber.
The consequences of this stalemate will also persist at the political level, commentators suggest: i Democrats gave individing itself and risking reopening the rift between the left-wing base of the party and the institutional and centrist establishment. For many Dems, the shutdown was an opportunity to draw an ideological line, but now many feel it was a a wasted opportunity. In exchange for the deal, the Republicans promised the vote on health subsidiesbut one vote is not a guarantee and it has not been specified exactly what that bill will contain.
With some on the left complaining that the party didn’t get enough from this closure (and with a handful of parliamentarians supporting this compromise) further stalemate strategies could take shape, especially in view of the mid-term elections next year. Furthermore, by guaranteeing food assistance, one of the most sensitive points for the Democrats was removed from the negotiations. Even if it shutdown should it end soon, most federal services will have funds guaranteed only until Januarywhich could lead to a further impasse in the not too distant future.
