What are the countries that are competing for Syria after the fall of the Assad regime at the hands of the Syrian Jihadist forces led by Abu Mohammed at Jolani? The political instability that has been created in the Syrian territory has rekindled the interest of 5 powers that compete for the domain on all or part of Syria: it is United States, Russia, Türkiye, Iran and Israel. The collapse of the Assad regime certainly weakened Iran and Russia, as the main sponsors of the Damascus government during the Syrian civil war, while Trump’s USA took advantage of it to gradually disengage from the area. Turkey, on the other hand, can be considered the true winner, with the defeat of the Syrian Kurds and the West supporting them.
Iran: the great defeat
In the aftermath of the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war In September 1980, the Islamic Republic of Iran, established after the Iranian revolution of 1979he established profitable collaborative relationships with the Arab Republic of Syriaat the time governed by the President Hafez al-Assad. Syria supported Iranian war efforts since both Damascus and Tehran considered Baghdad’s expansionist policy like a serious threat. The alliance report intensified further at the beginning of the Syrian civil war (started in 2011), when Iran and militias are part of the so -called “Axis of the Resistance” (including also Hezbollah) became the main ones sponsor economic and military of the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
It is not clear how much the Iranians spent in economic terms to support the Assad regime. Conservative estimates speak of beyond 50 billion dollarsbut these refer almost solely to the programs of economic assistance. However, if we also took into consideration the military area and intangible factors (expenses for religious-ideological support, for example), then this figure would rise to well beyond the 200 billion dollars.
Big Iranian strategies On the Syrian land I am however collapsed with the fall of the Damascus regime to end of 2024: now that the government is in the hands of the Sunni jihadists of ideological matrix, Syria It is to be considered in all respects a Tehran’s enemy.
Of course, the Iranians could try to encourage The destabilization of the new jihadist power Using how levers religious minorities and supporters of the old regime still on site, but because this strategy will be successful will take a long time, so for the moment every influence that the Iranians maintain in the area is of a residual nature and Syria is to be considered lost.
Russia in precarious balance
There Russia it was the main Damascus International Sponsor during the Syrian civil war. In September 2016 Moscow intervened directly in the war by sending its own military contingent to the Levante area who played an irreplaceable role in overturning the fate of the conflict in favor of Assad in the First phase of the Syrian civil war (2011-2024).
The invasion of Ukraine by Russiawhich took place the February 24, 2022and the subsequent flashes of the Russian-Ukraine war Still in progress, the Russian resources has almost completely absorbed and the attention of the leadership of the Kremlin. Also for this reason, at the time of the jihadist offensive in Syria of 2024, Russia It did not intervene in support of his protected.
The end of the Assad family regime, however, meant a serious blow to Moscow: for the moment, however, the new jihadist regime has not yet made the decision to expel the Russian military from the country, whose presence is now reduced to the Air base of Khmeimim, while the status of the Tartus naval base. In any case, the situation is very precarious and it is not said that the status quo will last long.
The USA between disengagement and uncertainty
The United States of America They had tense relationships, not to say bad, with Syria from the end of the Second World War to today, especially during the period of government of the Assad regime. The United States also intervened in the Syrian civil war against the forces of the so -called Islamic State (ISIS) In the north-eastern area of Syria, where they have even managed to create a semi-autonomous entony entity called “Rojava”.
Over time, the ability of the United States to influence the Syrian events, however, has failed, especially for theTurkey’s enmitywhich did not hesitate to resort to force to sabotage any internal and international strengthening process of Syrian Kurds, enemies of the current government of Ankara.
Among other things, the current Trump Administration He has repeatedly reported his desire to disengage from Syria and it is very probable that in the near future he will move from words to facts, leading to the loss of any residual lever on local power by Washington.
Israel and the expansionist aims
In the context of the war that has been opposed to Iran for at least two decades, theIsrael has several times Syria bombed as an ally of Iran. The continuous attacks and bombings have in fact contributed to the weakening of the so -called “front”Resistance axis»Led by Iran, who then could not oppose resistance in the face of jihadist’s advanced. In any case, Israel was able to benefit from the fall of the Assad regime, Given the subsequent weakening and withdrawal of the Iranians from the area.
Instead of taking the opportunity to establish profitable contacts with the new power established in Damascus, however, Israeli leadershipalready engaged in conflict of Gaza and with an eye always attentive to the shaky Lebanese frontinstead he decided to take the ball occupying also that part of Golan Hall under the control of the international mission Undof, as well as other portions of the Syrian territory properly said, including the rest of the Mount Hermon massif.
The fact that Israel checks one strategic portion of the territory of Syria internationally recognized, it does not mean that it has a real ability to influence the internal dynamics of Damascus: on the contrary, the Israeli actions destabilizing the status quo, together with the continuous developments of the war in Gaza, are indeed contributing to isolating more and more Israel on an international level and making them precarious the condition of security.
The triumph (momentary) of Turkey
There Republic of Türkiye He has so far been the great winner of this first phase of the Syrian civil war. In part for inertia and partly for its expansionist design, Ankara He got involved in the Syrian civil war on the side of the jihadistsoccasionally arriving to flirt even with ISIS in order to conquer strong levers in the Syrian territory and undermine its enemies, especially i Kurd supported by the West and by Israel. In particular, the goal of Türkiye was to weaken the ability of Kurds and the West to undermine its hegemonic plans in the Levant and in the “Great Middle East enlarged».
While the other countries mentioned above were occupied in others wars And International crisisAnkara was able to focus on her original plan to increase her own war potential In Syrian territory. Now, with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani in power in Damascus and the defeat of the Syrian Kurds, the Turks finally see the possibility of expand permanently sphere of flu Beyond their traditional partners and become the new hegemonic pillar in the area of Levante and, consequently, in Middle East in general.
