Why have the most young countries have more internal riots?

Companies in which the population is composed largely of youngUnlike Italy, which is in 5th place in the oldest countries in the world, they often tend to live protests, insurrections And contestation movements: It happens for example in areas such as sub -Sasaharan Africa, the Middle East and some regions of Latin America. Several social studies suggest that the young average age of the population affects the political and social stability. The concept of “Youth Bulge“(literally” youth swelling “) introduced by sociologists such as Gunnar Heinshn and Jack A. Goldstone helps to understand why youth demographic pressure is a” risk factor “for internal revolts.

The data: the correlation between demography and social instability

According to the data of the World Bank and the United Nations, the countries with a high incidence of young people (between 15 and 29 years old) compared to the adult population they tend to have more protests, riots and civil wars. An emblematic case is the so-called Arab spring (2010-2012): in those years, in the countries involved, such as Tunisia, Egypt and Syria, over 60% of the population was less than 30 years old, and youth unemployment exceeded 25%. The protests were fed by the frustration of a generation which, although more educated than the previous ones, was excluded from the labor market, by political life and, in general, from the well -being promised to them. A report by United Nations Development Program (UDP2014) highlights that about 40% of civil wars from 1945 onwards occurred in countries with a high altitude of young people compared to the total population. The sociologist Jack A. Goldstone (1991) analyzed the relationship between demographic growth and political instability, concluding that When over 30-40% of the population is made up of young adultsthe risk of internal conflict increases significantly.

Theories on youth revolts

Several scholars have developed theories that explain so that the young average age of a population can be a risk factor for the internal revolts. One of the main concepts used is that of “Youth Bulge“, elaborated by Gunnar Heinshn (2003). According to Heinshn, when a company produces an environment in which young people do not have access to resources and opportunities, competition for work, status and power generates frustration and, when the young people in question are a very large slice of the population, this leads more easily to rebellions, insurrections or civil wars.

Another interesting theory is that of Ted Robert Gurr (1970) who talks about relative frustration: The revolts are born when a social group perceives a gap between their legitimate expectations and real opportunities. In young countries, often characterized by a colonial history and a development based on the exploitation of resources, the new generations, thanks to education and exposure through social media to well -being models perceived as superior, develop different aspirations than those of the generations that preceded them (parents and grandparents). However, they clash with structural and cultural barriers that hinder their realization, pushing them to the protest.

From an anthropological point of view, James C. Scott (1990) He studied the forms of daily resistance of marginalized populations, highlighting that young people are often the protagonists of opposition movements because less linked to traditional hierarchies. The oldest generations would tend to accept greater compromises with traditional and political power, while young people, less integrated in institutional mechanisms, are more likely to question the existing order.

Social and political implications

If the youth of the population is a risk factor for social stability, what are the political implications? Governments face a complex challenge, however, political responses vary according to the context. Some countries try to absorb youth pressure through migration (as happens in many nations of West Africa, from which young people emigrate to Europe). Others, such as China, invest massively in formation and industrialization for offer to young people opportunity cheap. A particular case is that of Iran, which in the 90s lived strong youth demographic growth and experienced numerous student protests: in response, the government adopted a combination of repression and economic concessions, with conflicting results.

Is demography decisive?

Even if you study like those of Goldstone and Heinshn suggest a correlation between Youth Bulge And internal conflictsthe relationship between the two phenomena is not necessarily causal, that is, theone does not necessarily generate the otherbut simply coexist. For example, if we observe countries such as India and Indonesia, where the share of young people is particularly significant on the total population, we can say that there have been no significant revolts within them comparable to the “Arab Spring”. On the contrary, we find countries that, albeit with a much older average population (Germany), have experienced more important instability. When we think of protests, in fact, it is good to remember that taking into consideration the only demographic factor is reductive: The data should also be read in relation to other structural aspects such as corruption, political repression, economic inequalities and so on. There demography, alone, does not determine the fate of a country, but plays a fundamental role in influencing its social and political dynamics: A high percentage of young people in the population can be a precious resource for economic growth and innovation, but only if there are adequate opportunities in terms of education, work and social participation.