A thousand days. They are those that have passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kiev has little to celebrate and an even worse situation seems to be looming on the horizon. The Ukrainian troops, busy fighting on multiple fronts, are tired and the search for men willing to fight is starting to be tiring. The capital is in the constant sights of drones and missiles and Donald Trump will soon sit in the White House, the man who promised to end the conflict within 24 hours, without explaining how.
Outgoing President Joe Biden’s latest move was to greenlight the use of long-range US missiles against targets in Russia. A final gesture of military support whose concrete impact is unknown on the fate of the country that has been under siege for 33 months. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke online on November 19 in front of the European Parliament. “A thousand days of war. They are a challenge. A tremendous challenge. Ukraine deserves next year to be the year of peace,” the Ukrainian leader said. The road to peace, however, means an immediate intensification of the war.
The impact of long-range missiles on the war in Ukraine
On November 19, the Ukrainian defense forces struck Russian territory for the first time with Atacms (Army Tactical Missile Systems) ballistic missiles, the use of which has just been authorized by Washington. “The attack was carried out against a target in the Bryansk region, which was successfully hit,” an informed source from the Defense Forces told Ukrainian media outlet RBC. According to military experts, Biden’s decision on long-range missiles “would not be enough” to change the course of the war.
The ghost that hovers over Kiev and its surroundings is that of Donald Trump. Everyone expects a reduction in support for Ukraine, both in financial and military terms. The tycoon’s arrival in the Oval Office for a second mandate also scares the European Union. Brussels feels the threat of remaining isolated in its support for Kiev and sanctions against Moscow.
The consequences of North Korea’s soldiers alongside Moscow
Thousands of Ukrainian citizens have died since February 24, 2022, while over 6 million live as refugees abroad. Although Kiev prefers not to reveal military casualty figures, intelligence reports from Western forces show that tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people have been wounded or killed on both sides. This is the largest conflict Europe has experienced since the end of the Second World War.
The sending of eleven thousand North Korean soldiers to support Russian troops raises fears of a further expansion of the front. “This contingent can grow in number up to 100 thousand,” Zelensky said in connection with MEPs gathered in Brussels. The involvement of the troops sent by Kim Jong Un was one of the factors that pushed Biden to authorize the use of long-range missiles, capable of reaching targets up to 300 kilometers away.
The need for Ukraine to strike targets in Russia
The Ukrainian president presented his “plan for peace” to European leaders in early autumn, a formulation that, however, falters with Trump as president of the United States. For this reason it has become even more essential for him to insist with his European partners, who are however grappling both with internal political crises, as is happening in Germany, and with transversal problems that affect the very functioning of the European institutions. But Ukraine knows it cannot wait.
“Without fires at scrapyards on Russian territory, without attacks on Russian military logistics, without its air bases being destroyed, without losing its ability to produce missiles and drones and without its assets being confiscated, Russia will not have a motivation to engage in sensible negotiations”, underlined Zelensky in front of the MEPs.
France and the United Kingdom could soon eliminate restrictions on long-range weapons already supplied, but other European partners must also be convinced, especially if Washington were to back down. The other request of the Ukrainian president concerns “sanctions” against the so-called “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, thanks to which Moscow manages to circumvent the restrictive measures adopted by the EU to reduce the revenues obtained from the export of crude oil.
Putin’s new nuclear doctrine takes away peace
Ukraine’s goal is to get through the winter and be able to sit at the negotiating table with a “key factor” capable of making Vladimir Putin feel threatened. However, the head of the Kremlin has shown that he is willing to raise the bar further. Immediately after Biden authorized long-range missiles, he signed the decree formalizing his new nuclear doctrine, which extends the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the event of a “massive” air attack by a non-nuclear-backed country by a nuclear power. The references to Ukraine and the United States are evident. Moscow has called for the surrender and “demilitarization” of Ukraine, the return of the occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia, and the abandonment of Kiev’s ambitions to join NATO. Zelensky does not intend to give in to these demands.
Putin signs the new nuclear doctrine: what it means and what it threatens
“Ukraine will never submit to the occupiers and the Russian army will be punished for violating international law,” the country’s Foreign Ministry said today. He also stressed that international security depends on the ‘restoration of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine’. Moscow, he highlighted, took advantage of the war to build a military alliance with North Korea and Iran. The prospect that the war could end next year, as Zelensky hopes, seems much more distant than the risk that the threat becomes global, with the conflict potentially spreading or in any case further destabilizing Europe, South-East Asia and the Middle East.
