It is the fortieth day of the war between United States, Israel and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes, is effectively blocked.
In Italy diesel fuel has exceeded 2 euros per liter and in the airports of Milan Linate, Bologna, Treviso and Venice the first restrictions on refueling flightswith priority to those of the State, ambulance and lasting more than three hours. In this context, on 31 March the EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen wrote to all EU energy ministers urging them to prepare for “a potentially prolonged disruption to international energy trade” and to follow the 10-point plan from the International Energy Agency to reduce oil consumption.
It’s from that IEA plan — not from original European measures — which derive from the indications circulating in recent days: less diesel and more aviation fuel smart workinglower speed limits, fewer flights where rail alternatives exist. Measures still voluntary, not mandatory. The extraordinary summit of EU energy ministers on 1 April ended without binding measures.
What the Italian ministers said: Crosetto and Pichetto Fratin
On 7 April the Minister of Defense Guido Crosetto gave an interview to Corriere della Sera in which he outlined a gloomy geopolitical picture: “It is a situation that has no precedent in the history of recent decades”, he said, evoking Hiroshima and the risk of an uncontrolled spiral. To a direct question about the risk that everything will stop within a month, Crosetto responded: “It is what is feared. Not everything but a lot.” The phrase was widely circulated in the media, but it must be read in its context: Crosetto was talking about the global geopolitical crisis – Trump, NATO, the American bases in Italy, the risk of military escalation – not a ready-made energy rationing plan.
On the specific energy front, the reference voice is the Minister of the Environment and Energy Security Gilberto Pichetto Fratin. On April 5, in an interview with Repubblica relaunched on LaPresse, he declared:
It is clear that we are ready to rationing if necessary. We are evaluating various possible actions, but there are not yet the conditions to intervene.
He specified that “a special commission works at the ministry to study the emergency plan” and that “actions will have to be measured against the current situation”explicitly excluding a return to Sunday walking as in the Seventies.
On the reserves front, on 2 April Milano Finanza had already given a more reassuring reading:
We have a storage capacity of approx 45%, we should add 8-9 billion cubic meters but, starting now, I don’t think there are huge difficulties.
And he added: “Let’s hope we don’t have to get to the point of evaluating certain scenarios.” The word rationing is on the table, but how precautionary scenarionot as an announced measure.
Where would rationing start in the event of an “energy lockdown”
If the situation were to worsen and the government was forced to activate concrete measures, the logic of energy rationing follows a precise hierarchy: essential services are protected and non-strategic consumption is hit first. As suggested by the European recommendations and precedents of 2022, i first interventions would concern private transport — with possible restrictions on circulation — and non-essential domestic consumption, such as summer air conditioning. The lighting of monuments, public buildings and non-urgent spaces would be another immediate lever.
The flight sector would be among the most exposed, as already emerges from the first limitations in Italian airports. On the industrial front, the reasoning becomes more complex: continuous cycle and high energy consumption supply chains would be the first candidates for a remodulation of productionbut their economic weight makes every decision politically and socially delicate. Hospitals, defence, public transport and critical infrastructure would be left out of any cut plan.
Italian energy-intensive companies: who consumes more and who risks more
There is one concrete measure of what rationing would mean for the Italian production system 2025 Istat study on energy-intensive companiesrelating to 2023 data. At the top of the ranking for added value are the metallurgical activitieswith 5.9 billion euros produced by 310 companies, followed by manufacture of articles in rubber and plastic materials (5.1 billion, 621 companies) and from the processing of non-metallic minerals (4.3 billion, 268 companies). Lower in the ranking, but still relevant, are the food, beverage and tobacco industries (3.3 billion, 349 companies) and the manufacturing of coke and products derived from oil refining (3.1 billion, 161 companies). These are sectors without which, as the same analysis notes, the country’s economy stops functioning: steelworks, chemicals, plastics, glass and ceramics are the manufacturing backbone of Italy, largely concentrated in the North.
A rationing that if it affected these sectors would not just be an energy saving measure: it would mean choosing which production chains to slow downwith direct impacts on employment, exports and supply chains. This is why any realistic emergency plan would seek to intervene first on widespread and flexible consumption – transport, heating, lighting – before touching industrial production.
