Cutting lunchtime flights, those departing on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and reducing short routes: these would be some of the first hypotheses of airlines to respond to the possibility of a lack of jet fuel in Europe in the coming months, which should then be confirmed, pending the new guidelines from the European Commission aimed at airlines to deal with the crisis arriving in recent days.
As we told you, the supplies of jet fuel (i.e. the kerosene used by planes) arriving from the Persian Gulf are practically blocked and the price has increased 84% since the start of the war in the Middle Eastgoing from almost 800 dollars per ton to the current 1,500.
In addition to the cancellation of flights, already carried out by many companies, with 12,000 planes canceled in May alone, companies could envisage new measures to deal with the lack of fuel, which are not yet official and to be confirmed, but which would help safeguard summer flights.
The fuel emergency and the kerosene crisis would become increasingly serious
As stated by Michael O’LearyCEO of Ryanairal Corriere della Serawith respect to these extraordinary measures, «At the moment there is nothing concrete, but with the Strait of Hormuz still closed the supply problem becomes, week after week, more serious for our sector». O’Leary is among those most concerned about kerosene shortages – or at least, among those most exposed.
The CEO of the low cost airline with the most passengers in Europe and over 3 thousand flights a day, declared that the fuel emergency could occur starting from the first days of Junebut both he and other companies do not express themselves in a too catastrophic manner for fear of scaring passengers. Fear could in fact block bookings and have a negative chain effect, which would leave even flights still operating emptier and could further put the sector in crisis. A few days ago the news came of the bankruptcy of one of the main low-cost airlines in the United States, Spirit Airlines, which was already not in very good shape.
Vuelinga Spanish low-cost airline, is for example issuing a statement in which it communicates that “The airline is operating according to the flight schedule and does not foresee any interruption in fuel supplies for this summer” and that “in the unlikely event of changes or interruptions to your travel plans” they would provide alternatives to passengers, or a refund.
As stated by European Commissioner for Transport, Apostolos Tzitzikostas“for the moment there is no evidence of a shortage of aviation fuel supplies”, but the situation still remains “rather critical and we must be ready – and we are – for all scenarios”. For the moment they have already been sacrificed the least profitable routesin which planes depart at less than full capacity, or secondary routesor those where competition is stronger, but companies are considering further cuts.
In these hours they are there new signs of détente related to the conflict and this has already had an effect on the stock exchanges, lowering the cost of crude oil: however, jet fuel prices may not fall, remaining high in the coming months, due to the strategic reserves to be rebuilt in Europe (the deficit currently it stands at 250,000 barrels per day), refining costs and the desire to avoid new sudden shocks.
Cutting flight times and less busy days: airline plans
The goal, in general, is to rationalize flights – and consequently the fuel –, so as to leave fewer, but fuller, and to conserve the fuel for the next few months. As explained by O’Leary, therefore, they could be sacrificed first and foremost mid-day flightswhich would have less impact as they usually carry fewer passengers. The objective is therefore to maintain morning and late afternoon/evening flights, which are normally more crowded. The risk, however, with very high occupancy rates on flights, could be the impossibility of relocating passengers from canceled flights.
According to what was gathered by Courierthe usually less crowded flights during specific days of the week could again be sacrificed, i.e on Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday, and those whose routes could be replaced by high-speed trains, within individual countries – even if this hypothesis would congest the flows of land travel. However, flights to the islands would remain protected (even if less frequently), as they cannot be adequately replaced by sea transport.
