The USA votes in the 2026 midterm elections: 50 states voting, all 435 seats in the House and 35 senators are up for grabs. The polls favor the Democrats, with Trump at the lowest consensus. According to experts, the most likely scenario sees a Democratic majority in the House, with the Senate still in the hands of the Republicans: an outcome that would weigh on Ukraine, Iran, NATO and Europe.
On November 3rd they take place in United States the so-called midterms 2026the mid-term elections in which Americans are called to vote to renew all 435 deputies from the House of Representatives And 35 senators (about a third, out of a total of 100 seats), in addition to the governors of 36 states.
The elections – which take place halfway through the presidential term, as the name itself explains – they will not concern you directly the figure of the president Donald Trump: However, they will be critical to measure the approval rating of his administration after two years in office.
At the moment, the latest NBC polls give the Democratic Party has the advantagewith the 52%against the 45% of Republican Party (that of Donald Trump). It must be said, however, that historically midterm elections tend to do not reward the party of President in office: many analysts, however, point out that Trump’s popularity index has dropped considerably (standing at 38-40%, one of the lowest rates in recent US history), thanks to inflation, the high cost of living and the high cost of fuel that the United States also experienced after the outbreak of war in Iran.
The outcome of this electoral round, however, will have relapses about us too Europeans: in these two years the US President has governed with a majority of his party in both the House and the Senate, but the results of the midterms could overturn these balances (especially in the House of Representatives).
This will clearly have an impact on the Trump administration’s decisions, especially those involving the foreign policyincluding negotiations on Russia and Ukrainethe American role in BORN and the war in Iranwith Netanyahu reportedly putting pressure on Trump to have the US strike Tehran again immediately after the midterms.
How midterm elections work and what is at stake
To better understand the scope of these mid-term electionswe must first start from a simple but fundamental point: these are elections that concern the members of Congressthe equivalent of our Parliament, an expression of legislative powerwhich functions as a counterweight to the executive branch (i.e. the government, now led by President Trump).
The American Congress is made up of 435 members of the House of Representatives And 100 members of the Senate. The difference between the two chambers helps to understand what is really at stake. In the House everyone the 435 seats come renewed every two years, because deputies have two-year mandates and the number of representatives for each state depends on its population, with each district corresponding to approximately 761,000 people.
The Senate instead, it follows a different logic. Each of the 50 States has the right to 2 senatorswhose mandates have a duration of 6 years and they are staggered, so that at each election they are only renewed a third of the available seats (with senators from the same state never voting in the same year).
Today the balance in Congress leans on the side of the Republicans: Trump’s party controls both roomswith the Senate split 53-47 and the House 219-214 with two seats vacant, and also holds a majority of governors, 26-24.
The point is that overturn these majorities Not that’s how it is easy for both two bedrooms. As for the House of Representatives, the Democrats only need a net gain of a handful of seats to win the majority and independent forecasters, such as the Cook Political Report, now see them as favourites.
Al Senate the match is more uncertain: the Democratic Party would need a net four seats and the Cook Political Report estimates a Democratic gain of between 1 and 6 seats, with hotly contested races in Maine, Michigan, Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
According to polls, in fact, the Democrats are doing well in states where the Republicans are usually the favorites: states like the Texas, Kansas and South Carolina have now been in the balance, where both parties are playing the game.
It must be said, however, that in 20 of the last 22 midterm elections the president’s party has lost ground, with the incumbent administration almost always arriving at this appointment on the defensive.
In summary, the possible scenarios include:
- Majority of Republican Party both at Room of the Representatives who al Senate;
- Party majority Republican at the Room of the Representatives and the Party Democratic al Senate;
- Party majority Democratic at the Room of the Representatives and the Party Republican al Senate;
- Party majority Democratic both at Room of the Representatives who al Senate.
According to experts, the outcome more likely is the number 3with the Democratic Party potentially obtaining a majority in the House, while the Senate would remain in the hands of the Republican Party.
Congressional control, however, is not a trivial detail. The party that wins gets the control of the legislative powerwhich has the authority to approve laws: a solid majority in both houses, therefore, implies faster and more efficient approval of the President’s political agenda.
Voting participation also needs to be read carefully. On the eve of the vote, more than 32 million Americans have already voted by mail (including Pope Leo XIV) or in person, with more than 59 million mail ballots requested or mailed. In general, however, turnout in midterms is usually lower than in presidential elections, and, crucially, early voters tend to be older than average, so early voting data does not reliably predict who will win.
Because the outcomes will also have consequences for Europe and Italy
If the president is not elected in the midterms and Donald Trump will remain in the White House for another 2 years, why Europe should he worry about it?
As ISPI underlines, a reversal of the balance a Capitol Hill it would redesign the relationship between Congress and the White House precisely on international themesfrom the war against Iran at sanctions against Moscowup to the commitments towards the BORN: the opposition party would have control of the budget of the armed forces and diplomacy, the power to summon and investigate members of the administration and, with control of the Senate, also the possibility of blocking appointments and treaties.
More specifically, as highlighted by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a Democratic majority in Congress would yield harder for Trump advance claims on European territory such as those towards the Greenland. Many Democratic candidates, in view of the presidential elections in 2 years, aim to unmask corruption, malfeasance and abuses of power and a majority of them would most likely open investigations and possible prosecutions impeachmentfor example against the Secretary of War Pete Hegsethalready under fire for how he handled military operations in the Caribbean and the war against Iran.
Democrats would also be best positioned to bring to light the links between the expansion of economic interests of the Trump familyforeign capital flows, regulatory decisions and foreign policy outcomes, making future agreements with countries like Russia less attractive.
It must be said, however, that a democratic victory it would hardly slow down foreign policy of Trump, who has often ignored his own Republican majority and who enjoys a presidential veto (overcome only with 2/3 in both houses), which could block any relevant law.
Hence ISPI’s observation: for Trump’s foreign policythe vote could prove to be both a barrier and an accelerator, because a president defeated mid-termno longer able to count on Congress for its internal agenda, tends to dedicate yourself even more so rest of the world.
In other words, faced with the defeat of his party, Trump could push even more on foreign policy to have visibility: meetings with world leaders in front of cameras, economic benefits for its allies, initiatives designed above all to give the appearance of success, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, the Americas and Greenland.
The mechanism, experts highlight, is always the same: if it fails in an area, Trump no near right away another in which to show strength and the recent “agreement” on Greenland served to shift attention away from Iran for a while. And at the moment even more risky moves cannot be ruled out, such as an attempt to overthrow the Cuban regime, following the capture of Maduro in Venezuela at the beginning of the year.
So what might a Democratic Congress be relevant to? According to ISPI experts, in budget: With majorities in both houses, Democrats could restore aid to Ukraine frozen by the administration and, on Iran, deny new funds to the point of tying the entire defense budget to end of the conflictexcept for a presidential veto. Something could also move on the trade front: after the Supreme Court ruled out the duties imposed by the tycoon with emergency powers in February, the new majority would have the last word on part of the tariffs affecting European goods.
In short, a Democratic Congress could deliver more expensive every move of the president, on Ukraine as on Iran and on NATO, without however being able to prevent it, also because, even in the event of defeat, Trump will remain in the White House for another two years with all the powers of the office.
According to experts at the European Council on Foreign Relations, however, a democratic victory at midterms could count a lot in the medium term (with the presidential elections scheduled in 2 years) and change very little in the short term. And it is precisely for this reason that, for Europe, following the vote on November 3 means above all starting to understand with which one America will have to do the math in the years to come.
