Surprisingly, a Romanian far-right populist emerged victorious in the first round of the presidential elections held yesterday in Romania, prevailing over Social Democratic Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. This is Calin Georgescu, an independent candidate and admirer of Vladimir Putin, who the polls had not predicted could obtain such a consensus. With 99.9 percent of the votes counted, Georgescu was the most voted, with 22.9 percent of the preferences. In second place at the moment is Elena Lasconi, of the progressive Union Save Romania (USR) party, with around a thousand votes more than the centre-left Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who obtained 19.55 percent of the preferences. The other nationalist candidate, the leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) party George Simion, is currently fourth. If the trend were to be confirmed, it would be Lasconi who would enter the run-off, scheduled for December 8, while the pro-European prime minister Ciolacu risks being eliminated at the end of the first round.
The far right is therefore on track to take around a third of the votes. A result that would be a political earthquake in the country of 19 million inhabitants, a member of NATO which has so far resisted nationalist positions, distinguishing itself from Hungary and Slovakia. The result of this first round of elections risks jeopardizing Romania’s pro-Ukrainian position.
Georgescu’s probable victory raises concerns in the European chancelleries and in the Atlantic Alliance. The president of Romania has a semi-executive role, appoints the prime minister and represents the country abroad, and controls fiscal and defense spending. Precisely on this last item, Georgescu could mark a change of pace, since Bucharest is under pressure to support NATO’s spending objectives.
Who is Georgescu, the nationalist who could lead Romania
Georgescu is an engineer and university professor, extremely religious and nationalist: he has attracted great criticism for his comments against the European Union and NATO, because they do not adequately represent Romania’s interests.
The 62-year-old was a member of the far-right opposition Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR), which he walked out of in 2022 after senior party members said his pro-Russian and anti-Nato stance would damage the AUR image. His statements, made in a 2021 interview, were unequivocal: on that occasion he defined NATO’s ballistic missile defense shield in the Romanian city of Deveselu as a “shame of diplomacy”, arguing that the Atlantic Alliance will not protect anyone of its members if they were attacked by Russia.
Georgescu has attracted widespread criticism for his comments in support of the Romanian fascist movement of the early part of the 20th century and for calling Ion Antonescu, the de facto leader of Romania during World War II, sentenced to death for his role in the Holocaust, a national hero. in Romania, and Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, number one of the fascist Iron Guard movement during the Second World War.
Georgescu’s populist program
Cristian Andrei, a political consultant in Bucharest, told the Associated Press that Georgescu’s unexpected performance in yesterday’s vote appeared to be a “big protest or revolt against the establishment” in the country. According to the political scientist, Georgescu does not have a well-defined program and instead has a vague and populist manifesto with positions that go “beyond normal discourse”. During the election campaign, which took place mainly on TikTok, he proposed a political recipe that involves reducing Romania’s dependence on imports, supporting farmers and increasing domestic production of food and energy. He focused his election speech mainly on the rising cost of living, with Romania having the largest share of people at risk of poverty in the EU.
Romania shares a 650km border with Ukraine and, since Russia attacked Kiev in 2022, has allowed the export of millions of tonnes of grain through its Black Sea port of Constanta and provided military aid, including the donation of a Patriot air defense battery. In the villages on the border with Ukraine there was a barrage of drones that violated the national airspace, but no casualties were reported. The tenor of political scientists’ analyzes is therefore not surprising. In fact, a political commentator has not ruled out that the Russian hand could be behind Georgescu’s exploits. The Kremlin denies any involvement.
