Despite the attempts of Europe to move away from Russian gas, the energy safety of the old continent remains at risk. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Brussels looked at the United States, increasing the purchase of liquefied natural gas (GNL) to fill, at least in part, the void left by the interruption of Russian supplies. But today, in a still uncertain geopolitical context and with the threat of the duties of the Trump administration, some managers of large European companies return to consider the import of Russian gas – also from Gazprom – as a practicable option. In the past, Russia covered up to 60% of the European needs, mainly through the North Stream gas pipeline, sabotaged in 2022.
Brussels says he wants to strengthen the diversification of energy sources after the progressive detachment from Russian gas, underlining that “the United States are absolutely one of the possible options”. The purchase of US GNL is “a possibility on the table” in the context “of the current duties situation”, reiterated a spokesman for the European Commission, remembering that President Ursula von der Leyen had already mentioned this option last November, immediately after the American elections. As a question about specific mechanisms, as a possible relaunch of the EU -related purchases of purchases, the spokesman replied: “The aggregation has already shown its effectiveness and could be one of the options. It is part of the current negotiations”.
In 2024, the United States covered 16.7 percent of EU gas imports, behind Norway (33.6) and Russia itself (18.8 percent). But the Russian quota is destined to drop below 10% after the closing of the pipelines by Ukraine.
The (necessary) step back of Europe
A hypothesis unthinkable until recently. For the European Union it would be a significant reverse inversion: in 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Brussels had committed to reset energy imports from Russia by 2027. “If there was a peace in Ukraine, we could return to import between 60 and 70 billion cubic meters per year, including GNL”, said Reuters Didier Holleaux, Executive vice -president of the French company Engie, once among the major buyers of Gas from Gazprom. The Russian share, he explained, could cover 20-25 percent of the European needs compared to 40 percent before the war. On the contrary, Patrick Pouyanne, the CEO of Totalengies, has warned against an excessive addiction on American gas: “We need more broken and greater diversification”, he said, underlining that Europe will not return to 150 billion cubic meters imported from Russia before the war, but a threshold around 70 BCM is plausible.
The war factor in Ukraine
France can count on nuclear energy and on an already diversified supply network. Germany, on the other hand, has entrusted for years on low -cost Russian gas, in particular to support the chemical and manufacturing industry. The German chemical sector recorded employment cuts for five consecutive quarters – an unprecedented fact – already before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. In this context, some entrepreneurs push for an immediate return of Russian gas. An Forsa survey shows that in the meclemburg-Pomerania, where North Stream arrives, 49 percent of citizens are in favor of restoring supplies.
Several European companies have launched refereeing procedures against Gazprom for the failure to supply gas following the war in Ukraine. The courts recognized the German Uniper and the Austrian Omv respectively 14 billion euros and 230 million euros. The German RWE requested 2 billion euros, while Engie and other companies did not make their request public. The latter proposed an alternative option, claiming that Kiev could allow Russia to send gas through Ukraine to meet the refunds of the arbitration, as a starting point for the resumption of contractual relations with Gazprom. But the return of Russian gas worries Kiev. “I hope Europe has learned the lesson,” said Maxim Timchenko, CEO of Dtek, a Ukrainian company that aims to export US GNL from Ukraine to Europe.
