On February 24, 2025 he marked the Third anniversary of the Russian invasion in Ukraineand therefore of the beginning of a bloody conflict that devastated the East-European countries and shocked the World geopolitical balancesmaking it difficult to imagine future scenarios. Although the February 24, 2022 both the date of the invasion, the history of this war has its roots in 2014when Russia intervened in Crimea and in Donbassstarting a real geopolitical crisis. Today, three years after the invasion, the situation is still uncertain.
The origins of the conflict: from the Russ of Kiev to the 2014 crisis
In order to understand the causes of a situation already complicated in itself, it is necessary to take a look at medieval history, in fact, the link between Russia and Ukraine has its roots in that Russ’ by Kiev that the cradle of today’s Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian nations was considered, to reach the twentieth century when theUkraine became part of the USSRobtaining independence only after its dissolution, in 1991. Le modern tensions Between the two countries they began in 2013 when Ukraine, after a real popular revolt, tried to approach theEuropean Union: the Russia he perceived as one threat there Film -western current who pervaded Ukraine and in 2014 he reacted with theMilitary annexation of Crimea and support for Filorussian separatists of the Donbass. At this point there were paths of pacification, such as the Minsk agreements, which however did not solve the tensions that resulted in the large -scale invasion started with bombing On the cities of Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Kiev, at five in the morning of February 24, 2022. The goal of President Putin was destabilize the Kiev government e strengthen one’s influence on the region.
The current situation: between military stall and geopolitical tensions
After three years of war the situation is in one stall That does not let the peaceful conclusions foresee: the Russian forces still continue large portions of south-eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian army, despite the lack of men and resources, attempts to regain the lost territory; In addition, Kiev also face the further threat of the possible lack of support from the western powers. Donald Trumpreturned to the White House for a few months, he said more than wanting to reduce economic support to Ukraine, he said that Kiev “should have negotiated before”, defining Zelensky a “dictator” and opening the possibility of negotiations with Moscow. Volodymyr Zelensky He replied by accusing Trump of falling into Russian propaganda and said he was willing to meet him before a possible summit with Putin. THE’European Union At the moment he continues to support Ukraine by approving the sixteenth package of sanctions against Russia, but is looking for new strategies to keep a precarious geopolitical situation in balance, considering the American positions. Ursula von der leyen and others of the European leaders went to Kiev To reiterate their commitment, while the French president Emmanuel Macron has announced a peace plan which will be discussed with Trump. There Russia Then he shows no signs of failure: Putin continues to lead offensive targeted and maintain territorial requests, while internal repression against dissidents and opponents intensifies.
Future prospects: what are the possible scenarios
Of the Russian-Ukine conflict it is not possible to predict the end for the moment, what is certain is that the geopolitical balances created after the cold war have turned upside down, considering the presumed Communion of intent between Washington and Moscow. Among the possible future scenarios there is that of a Peace agreement mediated by Macron and Trump However, it would see Ukraine in a disadvantage, forced even to give in territories to Russia; The conflict could instead continue how a war of attrition or, the greatest risk is that Russia and NATO can collide openlya situation that would certainly involve us firsthand. However, at this moment, Trump and Putin would seem to warm the first of these hypotheses, as far as we are slowed by Zelensky and his attempts to mitigate the disadvantage that would affect his country by proposing his again sudden adhesion to the Atlantic alliance (hypothesis already proposed since the beginning of the war, now clearly opposed by Washington, in agreement with Moscow) also at the price of his resignation. Three years after the start of the Russian invasion, despite over 46,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers and as many Russian, more than 2,500 killed children and millions of displaced people, the war continues without a clear exit route: peace still appears far away. While the great powers delight in power games and the world leaders are looking for a diplomatic solution, millions of men continue to live under the threat of bombing, and the future of the eastern region of Europe remains hung on a thread. Whatever the outcome, this conflict has already indelibly marked the history of the 21st century.
