Just over a month after the celebration of the referendum on justice it was inevitable that the game would get to the heart of things, and as always happens when the going gets tough the tough start playing. The illusion of an electoral campaign contested on the edge of foil, entirely spent discussing the Constitution, separation of careers, CSM and High Courts turned out to be an illusion indeed. The parties have understood that to mobilize the bulk of the electorate, the one that on most issues looks more at the surface than at the merit, it is necessary to speak to the curve and not so much to the VIP gallery.

Vote projection: the record of abstentions

Pollsters all agree that at the moment only a minority of the population is interested in the reform, despite it having an undoubted importance for the lives of citizens. We are talking about a percentage of around 36/38 percent who to date express the intention of going to the polls. It is therefore clear to everyone that the final result will be decided by the remaining 15/20 percent who will presumably vote (for the Renzi reform of 2016 the turnout was 65 percent, in 2020 due to the cut in parliamentarians it was 51 but the consultation was combined with some regional elections). Whoever is able to best motivate their “front”, or their “potential front”, will take home a victory which, given their proximity to politics, could turn out to be double, like the joker once upon a time at Games Without Borders.

Andrea Pucci excluded from Sanremo: what do you think? Vote and comment on our poll

This is the reason why the electoral campaign, on both sides, is moving towards plans that have little to do with the separation of careers or the CSM. The No side made the first move in this sense. A move that was in a certain sense obligatory. The polls showed the No vote far behind (while now there is a slight recovery), so the only way to get back on top was to fire cannonballs at those who proposed that reform, Giorgia Meloniand leverage the anti-Melonian sentiment in all its forms, a sentiment that is present in a large part of the population: the authoritarian danger that the reform would introduce in the dual option that the government would like to put the judges under protection or that a caste of untouchable super-pros would be created (moreover aspects that contradict each other), that the government wants to attack the judiciary because it does not like controls and dreams of full powers, that combined with the security decrees we are marching move towards a police state.

Matteo Renzi’s precedent: the fear of the flop

The Si front understood the move and on the contrary tried to react with arguments that were also not very relevant to the merit of the articles of the Constitution to be changed. Thinking that the heart of the reform is a referendum on the judiciary and its work in recent years, the distortions of the justice system have begun to be highlighted, from judicial errors (or presumed such) like Garlasco, to investigations conducted with arbitrary arrests or easy releases for those from social centers who beat the police and go unpunished. When it is clear that a victory for Yes would not eliminate new Garlasco cases and would not produce a magic wand capable of making every investigation bombproof.

In this contrast of strategies Giorgia Meloni finds herself in the middle, and is the one who risks the most. Caught between the need not to appear too much so as not to personalize the vote as the opposition wants, and that of putting a face on it anyway because an electoral campaign fought on the edge of foil doesn’t bite and in the end does it more harm than good.

Who is right about Andrea Pucci between tele-Meloni and social-Schlein – by Fabrizio Gatti

The prime minister had stated from the beginning that she did not want to “politicize” the consultation to avoid ending up like Matteo Renzicrippled in 2016 by his imprudent exposition (“If I lose I resign” and other things of the sort), but he is realizing that a politicization is already in things, and a year after the vote for the renewal of parliament it could only be like this. This is perhaps the reason why in recent days his media presence (the events in Turin, the Olympics, the Pucci case) also due to facts that have no direct relevance to the referendum has grown. Because when the going gets tough, the tough can’t stay in the stands.

Andrea Pucci excluded from Sanremo: what do you think? Vote and comment on our poll