It is underway in Baku, Azerbaijan, the COP29the 29th United Nations Conference of the Parties on managing the climate crisis. The international summit, which this year revolves around the new objectives of climate financereceived the exhortation of the leaders of G20 of Rio de Janeiro – requested by the Minister of Ecology of Azerbaijan Mukhtav Babayev – to find an agreement on climate funds for developing countries.
The last COP, held last year in Dubai, despite initial doubts, ended with a concrete commitment to stop fossil fuels. COP29 is currently experimenting instead considerable difficulties to carry forward the results of COP28, not only of a technical and diplomatic nature but also geopolitical, given theabsence of many European and world leaders and the shift in international balances following the Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential elections.
What is the objective of COP29 in Azerbaijan: the New Collective Quantified Goal
The general objective of the COP is to find solutions and strategies to achieve the objectives Paris Agreementssigned in 2015, which intend to stop global warming within the safe threshold of +1.5 °C compared to the pre-industrial era.
The main theme of the 2024 summit is related to finance, specifically establishing an agreement on the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which will regulate the allocation of funds by the most developed countries to developing countries to reduce greenhouse emissions and prepare for the effects of the climate crisis. The NCQG will have to update the previous international agreement, which dates back to 2009.
The draft NCQG under discussion at COP29 is currently still pending very long (25 pages) and counting 415 points on which no agreement has yet been reached. These are symptoms of how difficult it is to find a compromise between all stakeholders.
So far the agreements have provided for an amount of 100 billion dollars a year for developing countries; the New Collective Quantified Goal is evaluating the latter’s request to increase aid to 1300 billion dollars a year through public funds allocated by the most developed countries. The latter, on the other hand, ask that they can also contribute to these funds private investments And Emerging countries that are not currently donors. For example, some proposed nations are China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea.
Why finding an agreement at the UN climate conference is so difficult
Reaching a compromise on the New Collective Quantified Goal is proving to be anything but a simple undertaking, which is not surprising considering that the climate finance it is a new theme and partly still to be defined.
To begin with, there is no universally recognized definition what exactly should be considered under the umbrella of “climate finance”, especially which projects exactly fall into this category and what are the appropriate methods of transferring funds is still a subject of debate.
Furthermore, some projects seem to serve the interests of donor countries as well as those who receive the funds, for example through large contracts to companies based in the most developed countries. Not to mention frequent overestimates and discrepancies in the accounting of these funds.
At the moment the main objects of dispute are:
- how much the funds should amount to;
- which countries have the duty to allocate them and which have the right to receive them;
- where the funds can or should come from;
- how funds can or should be disbursed.
How the negotiations on the NCQG are progressing: the difficulties
After several days of negotiations, a result on the NCQG still seems far away. The Azerbaijani Minister of Ecology Mukhtav Babayev he declared yesterday 18 November that he is “concerned about the state of the negotiations” because “the parties are not moving closer together at sufficient speed”. Babayev asked for the support of the leaders of the G20 currently meeting at Rio de Janeirowho gave their exhortation today. This should increase international pressure on the negotiations and increase the chances of their success.
An interesting point on which an agreement has already been reached in line with the outcome of COP28 on phase out from fossil fuels is the following, already present in the draft:
The New Collective Quantified Goal must only include finances that support the transition to clean energy and the transition away from fossil fuel finance.
The G20 appeal and doubts about the success of COP29
In general, however, COP29 seems to be moving in difficult watersstarting from the absence of several world leaders, first of all the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. The absence of a figure representing the European Union is even more felt after the declarations of the new president Donald Trump on the desire to take the USA out of the Paris Agreement again.
Not even the French President participates in the COP Emmanuel Macronthe former US President Joe Bidenthe Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the Argentine President Javier Milei. The latter withdrew his entire delegation from the summit after displaying stances during the election campaign open denialism towards climate change.
The return to the White House also weighs on all of this Donald Trumpwho is avowedly pro-fossil and at least skeptical of climate change. According to an analysis by Carbon BriefTrump’s presidency could lead to a increase in greenhouse emissions up to 4 billion tonnes of CO equivalent2 compared to the plans established under the Biden presidency.
As regards theItalythe speech of the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed a “non-ideological and pragmatic” approach in defense of “technological neutrality”. An intervention which, according to some observers, does not show a concrete commitment to the phase down from fossil fuels (after all, Azerbaijan is a major exporter of gas to Italy) and would be too optimistic in the role of some technologies that are still too immature – such as nuclear fusion – to contribute to the energy transition in a timely manner so as not to break through the threshold of +1.5 °C.
Some have also criticized the fact that COP29 is being held for the third year in a row in a Fossil fuel exporting country (Azerbaijan) after the Emirates at COP28 and Egypt at COP27. Moreover, in the inauguration speech of COP29 the president of the summit Ilham Aliyen he had defined oil as “a gift from God”.
