In Europe people are dying more and more often due to the heat, and the trend now concerns almost the entire continent: there were 1,300 heat-related deaths in a week according to WHO calculations, of which 1,000 in France alone. But looking period 2000-2020 to have the absolute record is Italy: on average over 3,000 every yearahead of Germany and Spain. A map published byEuropean Environment Agency (EEA) for the first time it measures not how many people die from the heat in Europe, but in which direction the phenomenon is going, region by region. The result is clear: in 94% of the areas analyzed heat-related mortality is increasingand only in a minority of territories is the trend decreasing. A widespread growth that speaks of a now structural risk, no longer linked to a single exceptional summer.
The new European heat mortality map and what it really reveals
The map, released in summer 2025 in collaboration with the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)stands out from those we are used to due to a decisive detail. The most common representations show the mortality level: where, on average, heat causes more deaths. This map instead measures the trendthat is, by how much heat-related mortality is increasing or decreasing over time in each region, along the period 2000-2020.
A mortality level map tells you where the problem is already serious; a trend map says where it is accelerating. And the acceleration, according to EEA data – constructed starting from Eurostat mortality statistics and risk curves developed by the literature on The Lancet – concerns almost the entire continent. The red color, that of the increase, dominates the map from the Atlantic to Eastern Europe.
Where heat-related mortality is growing the most in Europe: Spain in the lead
While the increase is generalized, it is not uniform. Driving the growth is south-western Europe, with Spain as a country worse off: the Iberian peninsula concentrates the regions where heat-related mortality is rising most rapidly, followed by Portugal and a band that crosses the continental heart, from Germany to Belgium up to Italy.
In the midst of this picture, an exception stands out that is worth mentioning: Bulgaria is the only country with a decreasing average trendalong with a few areas of Greece And Romania. An anomaly that should not be read as good news in an absolute sense, but as a signal of different local dynamics – probably linked to adaptation factors and changes in the demographic structure of the population. It’s a useful reminder: behind these numbers there is not just the thermometer, but the way in which each society lives with the heat.
Italy is the country with the most deaths, over 3,000 every year
From the long-term trend to the absolute numbers it is a short step, and for Italy it is not very reassuring. According to the baseline study on the burden of heat mortality in 854 European cities, published on The Lancet Planetary Health and then corrected by the authors themselves, Italy is the country with the highest number of heat-related deaths in Europe: on average over 3,000 each year, ahead of Germany and Spain.
The Italian record in absolute numbers, however, coexists with a fact that overturns intuition. If you look at the mortality rate compared to the population – the fairest comparison – the highest values they are not recorded in the large Mediterranean countries, but in Croatiafollowed by smaller countries such as Malta and Slovenia and, more generally, by the Balkans and Eastern Europe. A sign that the heat does not affect in proportion to the temperature, but to the vulnerability of those who suffer it.
Why we die more (and it doesn’t just depend on temperature)
This is the most important point. The number of heat-related deaths does not just depend on how much temperatures rise, but on fragility of the territory who faces it. The ones that weigh above all are theage of the population – The elderly people they are by far the most frequent victims – together with urban heat islandsaccess to health services, the presence of greenery and water in cities and socioeconomic inequalities. It is these factors, more than latitude, that explain why regions with similar climates can have very different balances.
On this ground, a clarification of method is useful, because it directly affects the reliability of the data circulating. One of the reference studies on the topic, published on The Lancet Planetary Health in 2023 and often featured in the most popular infographics, it was subsequently corrected downwards by its authors themselvesafter identifying an error in the calculation code. Correct estimates remain high and geographic patterns do not change, but the case is a reminder of how important it is to distinguish between different sources and handle absolute numbers with caution.
Adaptation saves lives, but it won’t be enough
However, there is some news that leaves room for action. The adaptation policies implemented after the heat waves of the last twenty years already have a measurable effect: according to analyzes on Nature Medicine, without the measures adopted since the beginning of the century the toll of recent summers would have been around 80% higherwith an even larger gap among older adults. Warning plans, health monitoring and interventions in cities work, and save lives.
The underlying direction, however, remains clear. Projections indicate that overall temperature-related mortality is destined to growbecause the increase in deaths from heat will exceed the reduction in deaths from cold, even in strong adaptation scenarios. The EEA map, in this sense, should be read as a warning: the problem is acceleratingand the game of the next decades will be played on the ability to protect those who are most fragile, especially in cities.
