There Nova recurrent by T Coronae Borealis, a stellar system at 2600 light years from us, could explode shortly making the star – which is now not visible to the naked eye – brilliant in the night sky as the polar star. It is not the first time that we talk about it: the media began to discuss its “imminent” explosion about a year ago, which was initially expected by September 2024 by analyzing the periodicity with which this star explodes as one Nova every 80 years, in a fairly regular cycle (The last two explosions took place in 1946 and 1866).
A Nova It is a thermonuclear explosion that takes place on the surface of a white dwarf that has a binary star a red giant; The explosion, although remarkable, is not powerful enough to destroy the star itself. Of course in these cases it is always about Very approximate forecastsinevitable when it comes to stars that explode given the natural variability of these phenomena, although recurring as in this case. In fact, Nova has not yet exploded.
Now, a new research published by Astronomo Jean Schneider of the Paris Observatory as possible dates of the explosion of the star on March 27, 2025 or 10 November 2025. Again, these are dates to take cum wheat salis: i Margins of error are high And It cannot be foreseen exactly When Nova explodes, let alone with the precision of a single day. The only honest prediction that science can do today is that, probablythe star will explode By 2027.
Why these dates? The new study
The “prediction” of March 27, 2025 and of the November 10, 2025 As possible dates of the explosion of the Nova of T Coronae Borealis is based on an article published by the American Astronomical Society by Jean Schneiderastronomer of the Paris Observatory. In this article, the author launches himself in a prediction based oncombined analysis from the previous dates of eruption of the Nova and the orbital parameters of the binary system. The author himself invites to take “cum grain salis” the predictions since the last three registered eruptions of Nova have not been exactly periodic, varying on average 1.36 years Each time, so predict exactly the date of the next eruption is still a bet.
The explosion was already scheduled for last summer because the binary system showed one variation of its brightness very similar to the one that anticipated the 1946 event. In addition to being separated from 80 years in the period, the astronomer Schneider has noticed that explosive events follow one another on dates that are a whole multiple of the period of revolution of 228 days of the system. By combining this data with the latest explosion that took place on February 9, 1946, Schneider predicted that the next explosion will be either on March 27, 2025, or 228 days after November 10, 2025 and so on for the following months (25 June 2026 or 8 February 2027).
The astronomer also hypothesized a physical explanation for the explosion dates involving the presence of a third body in the system that has not yet been discovered. When this third body and Nova are at their slightest distance, which takes place every 80 years, the third body goes to get rid of the white dwarf and the red giantincreasing the flow of matter on the white dwarf, which now takes gas from two objects, thus triggering the thermonuclear explosion.
How the T -Coronae Borealis system is done
The system of T Coronae Borealis is found in the constellation of the boreal crown a 2600 light years from the earth. It is a binary system, that is, consisting of two stars, which includes a red giant, from the mass of 1.12 times that of the sun and a radius 75 times the sun, and a white dwarf of 1.37 solar massesrest of a deceased star. The two objects orbit each other each 228 days At a very small distance, about half of that between the sun and the earth. The proximity and immense severity of the white dwarf means that between the two stars a copious exchange of material takes place (one million billions of billions of kilograms per year), with the white dwarf tearing away the gas with a red giant companion.
Precisely this gas is spiraling and accumulating on the surface of the white dwarf and once a critical threshold is reached, a thermonuclear explosion on the surface of the star is triggered, so brilliant (200,000 times brighter than the sun) to make it visible to the naked eye for a few days. The last three explosions recorded took place at a variable distance between 78 and 80 years old from each other, the last of which in 194679 years ago. It is a Nova and not a supernova since the explosion takes place only on the surface of the white dwarf, thus leaving the star intact.
One thing is certain, however: if we don’t know When the explosion will take place, we know Where It will do so. The star, currently invisible to the naked eye, will shine for a few nights in the constellation of the Boreal crownvisible in our hemisphere in spring and summer between the constellations of Hercules And Bootin the position indicated by the red circle on the map below.
