Gravi incendi boschivi in Grecia

Fires in Greece, blaze reaches the gates of Athens: let’s analyze the problem of forest fires

Fires in Greece as seen from satellite on 12 August 2024. Credit: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel–2 imagery

A large series of forest fires began to spread uncontrollably on Sunday 11 August 2024 in Greece, in the region of Eastern Attica, currently covering an area of ​​almost 8600 hectares (86 square kilometers) reaching almost to the north-eastern outskirts of Athens. This is the worst fire in Greece in 2024which forced theevacuation of thousands of people in at least 11 municipalities northeast of the capital and has so far caused a victima woman in Vrilissia. The forest fire was caused by high temperatures and severe drought, and spread by strong winds in recent days. The first fires broke out near the city of Marathonone of the first to be evacuated; fires are currently being reported in at least 40 locations with flames up to 25 meters. 700 firefighters, 199 fire engines and 35 fire-fighting planes are in operation to fight the fires.

The situation led to the activation of the Civil Protection Mechanism of the European Unioninvolving other member countries that are sending support contingents to contain the fires and rescue the population: Italy has arranged for the dispatch of two Canadair firefighting planes. According to the spokesperson of the Greek Fire Brigade, Vassilios Vathrakogiannisthe situation will remain critical throughout the week, especially because in the next few days quite strong winds are expected which will help the fires to spread further.

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Map of the fire zone in Attica observed by the European satellites of the Copernicus network. The symbols represent all the fires active as of 13 August 2024. Credit: Credit: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel–2 imagery

Three main factors favored the formation of these fires: very high ground temperaturesa period of severe and prolonged droughtAnd strong winds capable of spreading the flames. A hot, dry and windy territory makes Greece one of the countries in Europe most affected by forest fires, with 50,735 hectares burned in the period 2006-2023. Unfortunately, however, the problem of forest fires in the Hellenic country is becoming more worrying in recent years, as can be seen from the following graph showing the extension of the burned territories between 2006 and 2023:

extension fires greece
Extent of fires in Greece between 2006 and 2023 in square kilometers. In yellow the average for the same period. Source: Effis

In both 2021 and 2023, approximately 1% of the national territory went up in flames. 2023 was particularly severe, with damages of 1.66 billion euroscorresponding to the 0.8% of national GDP of the previous year. According to experts, these situations that are so extreme today will become more and more frequent due to global warming, which favors all the factors listed above that predispose to the risk of forest fires. The problem is also exacerbated by the fact that between fires and global warming there is a vicious circle: rising temperatures increase the likelihood of fires, and fires in turn contribute to rising temperatures because they release CO into the atmosphere2 (one of the main greenhouse gases) and at the same time destroy trees, which are excellent absorbers of CO2.

Also due to this “vicious circle” the forecasts for the next decades are not among the most reassuring: using the climate models available to the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change), from now until 2050 the economic damages resulting from forest fires in Greece will be on average comparable – if not more serious – than those of 2023, which however compared to the previous twenty years were exceptionally heavy.

economic damage fires greece
Forecasts for the economic damage of the fires in Greece, expressed as a % of the national GDP. In blue the bars with the most “optimistic” and the most “pessimistic” estimates. In yellow the average for the period 2006–2023. Source: Effis

The problem, however, is not only economic and environmental, but also a health problem. In this regard, according to a study published this year on the effects of climate change on the dynamics of fires in Greece, the increase in average temperatures is related to a increase in emissions of pollutants harmful to health such as fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10).