The now former French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is expected at the Elysée today, December 5, to present his resignation after his government was overthrown by a vote of no confidence just three months after taking office, becoming the shortest of the Fifth Republic . This hasn’t happened in France since 1962. The motion, passed with 331 votes in favor – and even just 289 would have been enough – was presented by the left-wing coalition New Popular Front, with the decisive support of National Rally by Marine Le Pen.
In just a few hours, France has thus fallen into a situation of political stalemate that is difficult to resolve: Macron cannot in fact dissolve the National Assembly before mid-2025, after the elections held last summer. The head of state, who hastily returned from Saudi Arabia, will speak to the nation this evening at 8pm.
There are two possible scenarios before him, the French media underline: the appointment of a new prime minister in the next few hours, to stem the pressure from the left which is calling for the resignation of Macron himself, or the wait for a new government expressed by the parties . Meanwhile, speculation continues on the name of a possible successor and the composition of the next executive.
Distrust
The Rassemblement National and the New Popular Front, on the two opposite sides of the political spectrum, have explained that they consider the controversial budget presented in recent days by Barnier unacceptable, who, having failed to pass the parliamentary vote, would have tried to override it by invoking article 49.3 of the Constitution French, which with the sole resolution of the Council of Ministers allows the prime minister to commit the government’s responsibility to the vote on a financial bill. An act of strength that cost the trust of an already fragile government.
“I can tell you that it will be an honor for me to have served France and the French with dignity,” Barnier said in his last speech before the vote. “This motion of no confidence will make everything more serious and more difficult. I am sure of this.”
Both leaders, Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon, founder of the radical left party France Insoumise, harshly attacked Barnier’s government which they had laboriously supported until then. Criticism focused in particular on the budget law, “which penalizes, as always, the French judged to be too rich to be helped, but not poor enough to escape fiscal persecution”, said Le Pen.
The fall of the government “is not a victory”, but “the choice was made to protect the French”, the RN leader added later, assuring that she will “let the next prime minister work” on a budget “acceptable for all “. “The immense love I have for France has always made everything easy for me, even if I was forced to unite my votes with those of La France Insoumise.” For his part, the leader of the left made it clear that “even with a Barnier every 3 months, Macron will not last 3 years”. The result of the vote of no confidence was an “inevitable” outcome, Melenchon wrote in X.
La censure inéluctable a eu lieu. Even with a Barnier to all three of them, Macron doesn’t hold the three together.
— Jean-Luc Mélenchon (@JLMelenchon) December 4, 2024
Macron’s options and Barnier’s possible successors
According to a former minister who accompanied him to Saudi Arabia, Macron intends to appoint a prime minister within 24 hours. A tight schedule dictated by calendar urgencies: the the state budget, first of all, which will have to be adopted in the coming weeks, and the social security budget, which remained on the table with the fall of Barnier. One of Macron’s options for not waiting for Parliament – whose composition will remain unchanged – to reach an agreement on a new government, is to appoint a technician not expressed by the parties.
Alternatively, the head of the Elysée could rely on Article 47 of the Constitution, which allows the social security budget to be launched by presidential ordinance. Or, again, he could ask for the activation of a special law that urgently asks parliament to manage the budget items. Constitutionalists are divided on these possibilities, while the French media focus on the names of possible prime minister candidates.
Among them, the name of the Defense Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, and the Interior Minister, Bruno Retailleau, stands out, appreciated by the right for his very hard line on immigration and decidedly contested by the left. The name of Francois Bayrou, historic ally of Macron and leader of the centrist Modem (Democratic Movement), is also circulating. The list of candidates also includes the former socialist Bernard Cazeneuve, the republican Francois Baroin and Francois de Galhau, a technical profile.
