Bad news for Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris. His Fine Gael party, which is part of the popular family in Europe and was expected to win this week’s elections, is in free fall in the polls and risks finishing in third position. Instead, the main nationalist and left-wing opposition party, Sinn Fein, is now growing and at 20 percent of the vote.
Early elections
About two weeks ago, Prime Minister Harris announced the early legislative elections that will take place this Friday (November 29), effectively putting an end to the executive made up of a coalition between her party, the other centre-right formation Fianna Fail and the Greens , a coalition that had lasted for four years. The prime minister’s party, with a liberal-conservative and Christian-democratic tendency, had placed third in the 2020 elections and had then formed an alliance with the historic rivals of Fianna Fail, conservative but aligned on more centrist positions, which a rotation at the top of the government between the leaders of the two parties.
The decision to bring forward the date of the vote by a few months was most likely taken in the wake of a series of polls which indicated a strengthening of Fine Gael compared to the other Irish political parties. But now the situation seems to no longer be the same.
The polls
Sinn Fein, a party once considered the political arm of the Northern Irish separatists of the IRA (the Irish Republican Army), seemed to be struggling after the success of the 2020 elections in which it obtained the highest number of preferences. A decline, probably also due to the numerous scandals involving some party leaders, but which has been slightly reversed in recent days. According to the latest revelation from the Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll, both Sinn Fein and Prime Minister Harris’ partners, Fianna Fail, are growing by one and two points respectively, reaching 20 and 21 percent of the vote. Instead, Fine Gael would be in free fall by as many as six percentage points, going from 25 to 19 percent.
According to other polls including the one published on Sunday by the Sunday Independent, the situation would not be so disastrous for Harris, with figures falling but still leading the other parties.
In October, the coalition government passed an emergency budget with the aim of regaining electoral support. Among the main measures, tax cuts, increases in welfare and pensions and subsidies for families were included, possible thanks to the budget surplus which makes Dublin an exception among EU countries. Despite this, Harris has seen her personal approval rating drop from 50 to 46 percent in the Irish Times poll, but remains voters’ favorite over Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald and Michael Martin, leader of Fianna Fail.
Ireland between housing crisis and rising prices
The most likely outcome, according to the polls, is that the alliance between the two main parties and perhaps a third smaller party will be reformed, but this will depend on how well Fianna Fail and Fine Gael get in the elections. Sinn Fein is unlikely to be able to obtain a majority to govern alone or with its coalition, but it could obtain more support than expected given that the party has managed to gather the discontent of many citizens over the serious housing crisis that is affecting the country and the growing cost of living.
These problems, added to the poor state of the national health system and the growing concerns of the population regarding immigration, have weakened the traditional parties and favored a strengthening of Sinn Fein, known for its radical positions. According to analysts, however, the party will struggle to divert attention from its internal conflicts and should not be able to dispel the impression of not being ready to govern Dublin.
