2024 ends with good news for the government and for the center-right majority: the acquittal of Matteo Salvini. 2025 will begin with many unknowns, some risks and few opportunities.

Certainly, the coronation of Giorgia Meloni as the most important person in Europe is a viaticum for establishing good relations with the new occupant of the White House. Donald Trump, in fact, did not hesitate to define the Italian prime minister as “fantastic” and the close personal and friendly relationship with Elon Musk is another point in Meloni’s favour. The elections in Germany may bring the CDU back to government which, at least on immigration and the Green Deal, will have a line more similar to the Italian one. The political crisis in France, however, is weakening Emmanuel Macron, one of Meloni’s staunchest opponents. Finally, in Brussels, the appointment of Raffaele Fitto as executive vice-president of Ursula Von Der Leyen is a victory that Meloni will have to manage to play with skill. And, as far as opportunities go, the list ends here.

Between successes and dangers: Meloni leads the government towards a 2025 full of challenges

The biggest unknown always concerns foreign policy because the crisis in the Middle East, the political instability in Syria and Ukraine could lead to a further worsening of the economic situation. If it is true that, at the moment, Brussels has promoted the Italian public accounts and rejected the French and German ones, it is also true that the Italian GDP is not galloping and austerity is returning forcefully. Then there is the unknown immigration: will Meloni really be able to make the ‘Albania model’ work and impose it in Europe? If the new European Commission were to bring forward the presentation of the list not only of the so-called ‘Safe Countries’, but also that of ‘Third Countries’ such as Albania where migrants who enter the European Union illegally should be sent, then Meloni would be the undisputed winner . Vice versa, the eternal struggle between the centre-right and the “red robes” would continue and the prosecutors, with a few sentences, would still dictate the political line to the government.

Here, therefore, if the government, for now, at least according to the polls, enjoys substantial good health, the referendums could change the current state of things. Differentiated autonomy, Jobs Act and citizenship are the three pitfalls on the government’s path. Probably, it will be difficult to avoid election day and it is not enough to hope for a low turnout to avoid the risk of a triple debacle. The constitutional reform on differentiated autonomy is the most disliked of the three implemented by the government (the other two are justice and the premiership) and the only one that truly brings the opposition together. In the name of voting against ‘Spacca-Italia’, a good portion of those who love this government could go and vote and send the reform so dear to the League into the attic. This would have obvious repercussions on the government because the Northern League could accuse the allies of sabotage and the polls would suffer first and foremost and, secondly, the coalition. Let’s not forget that in 2025 there will be voting in Puglia, Campania, Marche and Veneto. In Puglia, if the candidate were to be the former mayor of Bari Antonio De Caro (mister 500 thousand preferences at the last European elections), the victory of the centre-left would be a given. In Campania everything depends on whether Vincenzo De Luca decides to run against the Democratic Party and whether the center-right will be able to choose a competitive candidate. In the Marche the Democratic Party could field the former mayor of Pesaro Matteo Ricci and, in that case, the game would become further complicated also because the outgoing president Francesco Acquaroli is from the Brothers of Italy. Finally, in Veneto, the prime minister’s party claims the presidential candidate, while the Northern League would like a hat trick for Luca Zaia. In short, between opportunities, unknowns and risks, the coming year looks very difficult for Meloni.