In the last 67 years of history, starting from Cuban Revolution of 1953-1959 until today, the relationships between United States of America and the Republic of Cuba they were mostly characterized by mutual hostility. Countless times over these nearly seven decades, every subsequent presidential administration a Washington they attempted to suffocate the Cuban regime and get rid of its leadership but never succeeded.
Today, with the Second Trump Administration in command at White Houseit seems that the Americans are determined to resolve once and for all this conflict that is perpetually left pending: also in light of the latest events, with the regime weakened by the economic crisis and the lack of food, electricity and fuel, it has become of primary importance to understand whether, if the war were to actually break out, Cuba actually has the means (such as the 300 drones it recently received from Iran) and the capabilities to be able to defend itself from a US invasion.
How Trump’s US could act against Cuba
The first thing we need to ask ourselves is what kind of action the political and military decision makers in Washington want to take.
The possibilities are different and would imply the mobilization of very different forces and means: they could opt for a large-scale special forces operation as happened in Venezuela; or for a generalized air offensive in the hope of a popular uprising as in the course of the war in Iranor even for armed action by means of groups of exiles (as happened precisely against Cuba during the events of the Bay of Pigs in 1961). They could also attempt an unrestricted invasion of the country as in Afghanistan in 2001 or in Iraq in 2003.
The experience of the Iranian War dramatically exposed all the limits of “air power”which alone was not enough to win the conflict. Given the historical experience of the Bay of Pigs and all the other attempts at internal subversion in relation to which Cuba has proven to be very tough and considering that the Cuban scenario is very different from the Venezuelan one (the removal of a single individual would not at all guarantee a change in the political course of the country) the only option left to the Americans is that of a full-scale invasion which would lead to the “debellatio” definition of the Cuban state and all its political, ideological, administrative and military structures. And this is precisely the scenario on which Cuban political and military planners have been focusing since 1959.
Havana and the military legacy of the “Cold War”
The Revolutionary Armed Forces (official name of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Cuba) were forged from scratch by the government of Fidel Castrothe winner of the Cuban Revolution, during the “Cold War” with two official missions:
- The first, aimed at protecting the territorial integrity of Cuba and the stability of the revolutionary regime from any American attempt to regain control of the island;
- The second, to help export the “internationalist revolution” in Latin America, Africa and Asia, supporting both with conventional and non-conventional means (what in current speech would be defined as “hybrid warfare operations” or “asymmetric operations”) the armed forces of “brother socialist countries”engaged in operations against imperialist countries or ideologically similar guerrilla movements.
The Soviet Union immediately recognized Cuba’s potential usefulness as an “assault battering ram” especially in the countries of the so-called “Third World”. In addition to thoroughly supporting the Cuban economy, he also provided very generous assistance in the decades-long process of expansion and modernization of its armed forces, which became de facto a small-scale reproduction of those of the USSR – although presenting points of notable divergence such as, for example, in the doctrines of use of the air forces and in the development of special forces clearly oriented towards guerrilla scenarios.
The current situation of the Revolutionary Armed Forces
In the late 80s of the 20th centuryCuba could boast the third armed forces in terms of number of personnel (after the United States and Brazil) and the second in terms of power and operational capacity (after the United States) of the entire American continent. However, this “elephantiasis” it was no longer sustainable in a historical era in which the collapse of Communism and the disintegration of the USSR had deprived Havana of its main geopolitical protector, ideological sponsor and outlet market.
Under the slogan of: “Less bullets, more beans”in the following two decades the Cuban Communist Party proceeded to cut military spending by 97% but, at the same time, the entire military doctrine of the Caribbean island was reformed based on the dictates of “asymmetric warfare” so that, despite being in a situation of clear strategic disadvantage, the Cubans could still defend themselves effectively from an American invasion.
Today the Revolutionary Armed Forces operate within the framework represented by the named doctrine “War of All the People”. At the first signs of an imminent invasion, the Cuban Communist Party, through the armed wing of the “Committees for the Defense of the Revolution”would issue orders for the general mobilization of the population while the Revolutionary Armed Forces would have the task of buying time using their conventional arsenals, dated but still numerousto slow down enemy operations and ferry the country into the next phase of the war. During this phase, the structures of the state would completely transition into “guerrilla mode” and, in an updated re-edition of the Vietnam War or the Balkan front of the Second World War, they would try to exhaust and expel the occupying forces with an all-out struggle.
The unknown of drones and anti-ship missiles
In recent days there has been a lot of talk about the possibility of Cuba adding the drone element to his doctrine of the “War of All the People”.
Based on intelligence leaks published by the newspaper Axiosthe island would start receiving military drones from Russia and Iran as early as 2023 and recently he would receive a batch of 300 examples. These probably belong to one of the many iterations of the HESA Shahed 136the drone of Iranian origin that has become a symbol of both Russo-Ukrainian War that of latest wars that have bloodied the Middle East.
At the moment, however, no photographic evidence has emerged to corroborate these rumors even if in 2016, during the military exercise “Bastion 2016”state TV framed one for a few moments Reconnaissance UAV of unknown model.
In the absence of more detailed information it is really difficult to speculate on what the impact on all levels of the introduction of drones might be. Unmanned aerial vehicles could be used in conjunction with artillery to neutralize the strategic Guantanamo base or to hit targets located in the territory of the Florida.
The highest paying use that Cubans could make of drones, especially when paired with anti-ship missileswould be to use them to block naval routes that pass through the straits located around Cuba (the Windward Passage, the Yucatán Channel and the Straits of Florida), potentially isolating the Gulf of Mexico and thus emulating the strategy that the Iranians have been using to great effect in the area of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman since the beginning of the current Iranian War.
In this scenario, Cuba would not limit itself to implementing a purely defensive strategy but, by exploiting geography to its advantage, could further increase the economic and political costs of such a conflict to the point of leading the USA to the point of having to desist from continuing hostilities.
