The guillotine of the National Assembly could soon fall on Michel Barnier. France would find itself without a prime minister, as well as a budget law for 2025, with French President Emmanuel Macron unable to call elections before July next year. If it’s not chaos, we’re close. What should condemn the man selected just three months ago to lead the Transalpine party is a “strange” alliance between the far right of Marine Le Pen’s National Rassemblement and the various souls of the New Popular Front, ranging from the greens to the radical left. The censure vote is scheduled for 8pm on December 4th.
Until that moment, the Macronists and the right are tasked with patching things up and looking for a solution, to avoid pulling the plug on a government that was decidedly not born under a lucky star. Unlike the Italians, however, their cousins from beyond the Alps are not used to compromises and technical governments. With Germany already dying both politically and economically, a crisis in Paris would further weaken the Franco-German axis on which the European Union is founded. A few hours after the vote-verdict, let’s review together the protagonists and the stages that will most likely lead to Barnier’s fall.
Who wants to bring down Barnier’s government in France
The shortest government in the history of France (just three months), buried by a vote of no confidence that had not been seen in France since 1962, when Georges Pompidou fell. The fate of Prime Minister Michel Barnier appears sealed, but the country does not seem ready for uncertainty. The deficit is stellar (+6% compared to GDP), but most of the parties have rejected a maneuver with many cuts and few measures that could be resold to an electorate that was deeply divided in July. The Rassemblement national and the parties united under the coalition of the New Popular Front (socialists, greens and the radical left of La France Insoumise) prepared the crisis.
Thus Marine Le Pen has the French (and European) economy in her hands
From the beginning, the prime minister was supported by a fragile majority, led by the centre-liberals, who refer to Macron, and the right. Not having enough votes in the National Assembly, Barnier’s hypothetical crutch should have been the far right, but the Lepenists withdrew their tacit support in the first delicate vote (the one on the budget). On the other hand, the souls of the left want to censor Barnier to “punish” Macron’s choice of not having entrusted the leadership of the country to them, despite being the coalition with the largest number of deputies.
Motions of censure in France
There will be two motions of censure. One presented by the Rassemblement national, the other by La France Insoumise, the most radical left wing led by Jean Luc Mélenchon. The far-right deputies said they were willing to vote for the left’s motion, not vice versa. RN can count on 124 elected representatives, France Insoumise on 71. To pass, the vote of no confidence requires another 95 elected representatives as an absolute majority is necessary. Mélenchon is betting on the adhesion of his allies: socialists and greens, but it is among their ranks that Barnier hopes for some defection. To raise doubts among those who should condemn him, the prime minister tried the media route, with a lengthy interview broadcast on the evening of December 3rd.
Barnier’s last appeal to avoid the fall of the government
Ten million viewers. This is the figure released by the French Auditel regarding Barnier’s live interview, broadcast both on the private network TF1 than on the public one France2. During his last attempt to gather support, Barnier asked the opposition for a “show of responsibility”. Then he directed his digs at Marine Le Pen, guilty of having weakened her willingness to support him. “We are not haggling,” the prime minister said, claiming that the far-right leader had entered “a kind of bullish game.” Finally a warning.
With the no-confidence vote and failure to approve the budget, “around 18 million French people will see their income tax increase,” Barnier said. It will be difficult to convince Le Pen with these words. Struggling with serious legal problems, according to political analysts, the leadership of the RN is trying to distract its electorate with the no-confidence vote, which is struggling to digest a government that demands sacrifices especially from pensioners. The hard core of his electorate must be cradled differently.
Emmanuel Macron’s shadow on the government
In the shadow of the political maneuvers remains Emmanuel Macron, who is on a state visit to Saudi Arabia. He accused the far-right deputies, the ones he was counting on, of “unbearable cynicism”. It is known from the corridors of the Elysée that he is already looking for a successor to Barnier. Various names are circulating: the former socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, the centrist François Bayrou and the defense minister, Sébastien Lecornu.
“Emmanuel Macron must come back to earth and take responsibility for the political chaos he has created. He must acknowledge it, admit the initial dissolution that led us to this political situation, and admit that the government he formed, based on the support of the Rassemblement national , it’s falling,” he accused on BfmTV Manon Aubry, MEP from La France Insoumise. “The underlying problem is Emmanuel Macron himself,” argued the politician, who leads the group The Left in Brussels.
Brussels trembles for a France without a government
According to the jurists questioned by Le Mondeno confidence is equivalent to a fall of the government and the need to appoint a new prime minister. The last time it took Macron about three months to indicate Barnier. Analysts believe that in this crisis condition France will still move forward, recovering last year’s maneuver, which however is equivalent to confirming its excessive deficit according to Brussels’ parameters. Despite the danger of a government collapse, European stock markets opened higher on December 4, as if the censure vote had been ignored.
The one who will not be able to ignore it is Brussels. Germany will vote for a new government in February, France not before July. Deprived of references in both Berlin and Paris, Ursula von der Leyen, who has just been reconfirmed at the helm of the European Union, does not have a “classic” referent to turn to. There remain two polar opposite leaders: Giorgia Meloni in Italy and the socialist Pedro Sanchez in Spain. The decisions that Europe needs to make thus risk ending up in a quagmire.
