More than ten weeks after the outbreak of war in the Middle East, the market global of oil is experiencing one of the most serious crises in its recent history, with oil stocks that they are reducing “at a record pace”. This is what is highlighted in the new one Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), published on 13 May 2026.
At the center of the crisis, as we all know, is the closure of the Strait of Hormuzthe maritime hub through which until a few months ago a quarter of global oil passed. To compensate, importing countries are drawing on their reserves at a pace never seen before, to the point that only in the months of March and April 2026 the global stocks they have almost decreased 250 million barrels in totalwith OECD countries almost burning alone in April 5 million barrels a day of its terrestrial reserves.
The collapse in global oil supply is also having repercussions in Italy where, between the end of February and mid-May 2026, the average price of gas it passed from 1.67 to 1.93 euros per liter, while the diesel it went up from 1.72 to approximately 2.02 euros: an increase which, on a 50 liter tank, translates into 13-16 euros more at every refueling.
It must be said, however, that at European level the EU has declared that currently there are no immediate concerns for the energy supply of the member countries of the Union, especially considering that “our supply of both oil, including diesel and aviation fuel, and gas is diversified on world markets”.
How much global oil supplies are: 250 million barrels less
According to estimates released by the IEA, global inventories of crude oil and petroleum products at the beginning of 2026 were approximately 8.2 billion barrelsthe highest level ever recorded since February 2021. In the May 2026 report, the International Energy Agency found that world oil stocks observed they are decreased by 129 million barrels in March and others 117 million barrels in April.
Between March and April, therefore, reserves dropped by almost 250 million barrels overall, equal to around 4 million barrels per day: not surprisingly, the Agency underlined how «the growing supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil supplies at a record pace». With traffic across the Strait still closed, the cumulative supply losses by the producers of Gulf they already surpass 1 billion of barrels, with over 14 million barrels per day of oil disrupted – this supply disruption is unprecedented in history.
The phenomenon is particularly evident in the case of land suppliesor the physical reserves of crude oil and petroleum products stored in onshore warehouses and tanks. In April alone, these reserves fell by 170 million barrels (-5.7 million barrels/day). Those who supported the blow were above all the OECD countrieswhose stocks on the ground have fallen sharply 146 million barrels (-4.9 million barrels/day) in just one month.
In addition to the issue of stocks and the interruption of supply, there is also the demand for oil to consider: the IEA has in fact predicted that for 2026 the global oil demand will reduce by 420,000 barrels al dayattesting to 104 million barrels per day. The largest decline is expected to be seen in the second quarter of 2026, with a decrease of 2.45 million barrels per day: the petrochemical and aviation sectors are currently the most affected, but rising prices and a weaker economic environment will have an increasingly greater impact on fuel consumption.
The consequence, according to the IEA, is that the oil market will stay in deficit untillast quarter of the year: Even if the United States, Israel and Iran were to reach an agreement to end the war in the coming months, global supply would still need months to return to pre-war levels.
How petrol and diesel prices have increased in Italy
The collapse of global supply, due precisely to the interruption of supplies from the Middle East, has caused the surge in oil priceswhich reached an average of $120.36 per barrel.
Even though we are not in a situation of actual shortage of fuelas highlighted by the European Union, this surge has also had an impact on Italy, in particular on the prices of petrol and diesel.
At the end of February 2026, before the outbreak of war, i average weekly prices on the road network in self-service mode they still moved at relatively low levels: the February 27 (the day before the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran), the gas stood around 1.67 euros per litre and the diesel to 1.72 eurosaccording to data from the MIMIT Price Observatory.
In March 2026, however, the price rise. On 16 March 2026, again according to MIMIT findings, the average self price of gas on the road network had risen to 1.82 euros per litrewhile the diesel had touched the 2.03 euros. In just over two weeks, therefore, petrol had gained approximately 15 cents per liter and diesel well 31 cents.
In April, however, the extension of the excise duty cut allowed a slight decrease in average prices on the road network, but only for petrol: on 27 April 2026, MIMIT reported an average self of 1.73 euros per liter for the gas, but say 2.06 euros per liter for the diesel.
In May, however, a new one arrived surge: The April 30th the Italian government has in fact extended of 21 days cutting excise dutiesbut with one remodulation. The discount on diesel was kept full at 20 cents per litre, while that on petrol was reduced to 5 cents. The result was seen immediately: according to the latest data released by Osservaprezzi, theMay 11, 2026 the average price was equal to 1.93 euros per liter for the gas And 2.02 euros per liter for the diesel.
Summing up, in two and a half months gas at the self-service it went from around 1.67 euros to over 1.93 euros per litre: a increase of approx 26 centsequal to 15% more. Diesel rose from 1.72 to around 2.02 euros, with a jump of around 30 cents (around 17.5%). On an average 50 liter tank, therefore, we are talking about a price that fluctuates between 13 and 16 euros per refueling.
The scenario, however, could change soon: the extension to the excise duty cut expires around the May 22, 2026 and the executive will have to decide whether to renew it, let it drop (with petrol approaching 2 euros per liter and diesel above 2.05) or intervene with structural measures.
