uragano kirk

Hurricane Kirk becomes a post-tropical cyclone: ​​when it arrives in Italy, the forecast

Hurricane Kirk over the Atlantic as seen by the European Sentinel–3 satellite on 3 October 2024. Credit: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel–3 imagery

Everywhere we are reading that «theHurricane Kirk is about to arrive in Europe and will touch Italy”, but as usual these titles leave the time they find: Hurricanes don’t arrive in Europe! Kirk was a pretty intense hurricane, reaching the category 4 of the Saffir-Simpson scale with winds up to 230 km/hbut now it is no longer a hurricane: at the moment it is a pso-tropical cyclonewith sustained winds up to 120 km/h and gusts up to 140 km/h. It is true, however, that it is proceeding quickly towards Europe, where it will arrive as early as tomorrow 9 October Spain and then continue France, Belgium And Germany like a depression typical of our latitudes, but discharging a large quantity of energy in the form of disturbances And strong gusts of wind. Contrary to what we read around, the Kirk’s depression “heir” should not reach Italy directlybut part of its residual energy will still go to create a cloudy tail in Northern Italy between Thursday 10 October and Friday 11 October, with thunderstorms, showers, strong winds and possible storm surges.

Kirk’s trajectory, from the Atlantic to Europe

The September 29th was formed off the coast of the Cape Verde Islands tropical depression which then evolved the next day into one tropical storm. Following the formation of a circular eye it transformed into a hurricane (i.e. a tropical cyclone) of category 1 at the end of October 1st. As it headed northwest its strength grew until it reached the October 4 there category 4 halfway between Cape Verde and the Leeward Islands. At this point the hurricane began to head north and then turn northeast. The ascent to increasingly higher latitudes has taken away energy from the hurricane (whose “engine” is the temperature of the waters below) which has therefore lost its tropical characteristics becoming a extratropical storm. Hooked by the Atlantic atmospheric currents, the cyclone deviated towards the east while maintaining a certain intensity due to the complex interaction with the horizontal atmospheric currents. This intensity, although far from the strength of a real hurricane, will still be felt in several parts of Europe.

hurricane kirk path
Kirk’s path in the Atlantic Ocean and forecasts for its trajectory in the coming days. Source: accuweater.com

Kirk arriving in Italy: thunderstorms and strong winds in the North

Between the 9 and 10 October the residual depression of Hurricane Kirk will touch the Spain northern and will enter the Bay of Biscay, from which it will enter France. It will have enough energy to bring very intense gusts of wind up 150 km/h in a region between France northern (also affecting Paris), Belgium And Germany western. It will then discharge completely between Denmark and the Scandinavian Peninsula.

The disturbance will therefore not directly affect theItalybut after a substantially sunny Wednesday 9 October, part of its residual energy will be discharged in our Peninsula Thursday 10 Octobercontributing to the formation of thunderstorms and showers especially in Liguriain Alps and in Prealps. We can also expect gusts and gales of wind in the Apennine ridge between Liguria, Tuscany and Emilia and possible storm surges. The Centre-South, however, will not be affected by the disturbance, indeed temperatures are expected to be well above the average for the period, even higher than 30°C.