Uragano Milton

Hurricane Milton towards Florida, winds up to 250 km/h and citizens evacuated: NHC forecasts

Hurricane Milton over the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico. Credit: VIIRS imagery from the NOAA–21 Satellite

THE’Hurricane Miltonone of the most violent of 2024, is about to hit the Florida peninsula: the landfall is scheduled for tomorrow Wednesday 9 October in the area of Tampa Bayon the west coast of Florida. In Florida it was declared lo state of emergency as early as Sunday 6 October, and the mayor of Tampa gave evacuation warning citizens to escape damage and possible flooding with waves expected to reach up to 4.5 meters. When Milton hits Florida will be by category 3 or 4therefore with sustained winds around 210 km/h and up to 250 km/hcapable of damaging buildings and causing victims: this is the most massive evacuation in Florida since 2017 (the year in which the hurricane Irma caused more than 120 victims), so much so that very long queues and chaos were created on Florida highways. All this happens less than two weeks afterHurricane Helenewhich caused over 200 victims. Today Milton is from category 4 and is located off the Yucatán Peninsula with sustained winds up to 240 km/h.

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Forecast for the arrival of Hurricane Milton in Florida according to the National Hurricane Center. Credit: NHC

According to forecasts, the most affected area will be that of Tampawith precipitation forecast from 30cm to 40cm and a probability of flash flooding greater than 70%. However, the hurricane warning also extends to the east coast of Florida, while at the “tip” of the peninsula there is a tropical storm warning.

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Hurricane Milton Precipitation Forecast. Credit: NHC

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Chance of Storm Storms Due to Hurricane Milton. Credit: NHC

Hurricane Milton has reached its peak in the past few hours off the coast of Merida, Yucatán, where it was classified as a hurricane category 5 (highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale) with winds up to 285 km/h and a central pressure of suns 897 millibarsthe 5th lowest ever recorded for a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. In short, Milton has become more violent than Helene and it did so very quickly: just 7 hours before reaching category 5, in fact, it was a hurricane of category 1 with winds up to 150 km/h. It is the 3rd fastest growing hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic.

This also happened because of high temperatures of surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which are located around 28°C and in some places they even reached the 31°C. In fact, let’s remember that it is precisely the heat of the water that fuels the force of the winds of a tropical cyclone. The close passage with the Yucatán has taken away the power of the hurricane, which is however hitting the Mexican peninsula with torrential rains and strong winds: fortunately the eye of the storm has not touched the coast of Mexico, thus limiting the damagesbut a red alert was still issued in dozens of municipalities.

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Wind forecast for the passage of Hurricane Milton in Florida. Source: NHC

Unfortunately, however, the decline in strength is only temporary: according to the forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Milton it will regain power moving away from the coast as it heads towards Florida, holding “an extremely serious threat”. In general, the frequency of major hurricanes in this period is not surprising, because we are in the midst of hurricane season. However, right now we have three tropical cyclones at the same time in the Atlantic (Hurricane Milton, Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk, and Tropical Storm Leslie in the mid-Atlantic), which represents a real anomaly for the month of October.