In the night between 1 and 2 October 2024 theIran he launched approx 180 ballistic missiles against Israelin response to Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon (which led, among many things, to the death of Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah) and thekilling of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, celebrated in Tehran on July 31st. The Iranian military operation against Israel, known by its code name Operation True Promise IIlike the previous Operation True Promise I (which took place in the night between April 13th and 14th) was completed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (commonly known as Pasdaran). Although the number of direct victims of the attack was very limited in terms of deaths and injuries, thanks also to the Israeli Iron Dome and Arrow 3 anti-missile systems, the iron Israeli censorship at the moment it does not allow us to say too much about the real extent of the material damage suffered by Israel. However, the attack appears to be yet another episode of conflict between Israel and Iran.
How Iran’s attack on Israel unfolded
The Iranian attack began in the early evening, when they were in Italy just after 6.30pm. Starting from the launch bases located in the areas around Tehran, Karaj, Tabriz and Kashanthe Pasdaran launched 180-200 ballistic missiles equipped with a number between 400 and 500 warheads against the State of Israel. Various news outlets have also stated that this operation had its baptism of fire Fattah-1 missilewhich some analysts define hypersonic.
The Iranians justified the attack as a response to both Israeli intelligence and military operations which in the last 2 months led to the death of the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyehof the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallahand of the deputy commander of Pasdaran operations, the brigadier general Abbas Nilforoushan.
According to the Iranians, their attack, organized on two waveshad as its primary objectives the basics of the IASF, the Israeli Aerospace Force. The Israeli anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses countered the Iranian attack also with the support provided by the American allies, but at the moment it is very complicated to provide certain data regarding the real number of interceptions as well as the extent of the damage suffered by Israeli infrastructures. The only certain victims of whom we have news to date are a Palestinian worker was killed by the falling remains of a missile and two Israeli citizens were slightly injured.
Iran’s previous attack on Israel: Operation True Promise I
The October 1-2 attack is not the first ever case of an Iranian missile offensive against Israel. Already in the night between 13 and 14 April 2024In fact, the Iranians had conducted a similar military action called Operation True Promise I in response to the bombing of the consulate next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
On that occasion, however, the Iranians hit Israel with a series of mixed waves including: ballistic missiles (about 120), cruise missiles (about 30) and kamikaze drones (about 170) and almost all of their ordnance was equipped with one single header.
In the case of the operation we witnessed last evening, however, only ballistic missiles were used, launched in two waves close together and a significant portion of them were equipped with multiple warheads in such a way as to achieve the saturation of Israeli missile defense capabilities.
The danger of uncontrolled escalation: possible future scenario
In the hours following the attack, Iranian authorities were quick to state that no further launches were planned and that “the result met expectations”. On the other hand, their Israeli counterparts have countered that the attack will not go unpunished and that Jerusalem is mounting a response. Many analysts talk about the possibility that this hypothetical response will result in a massive attack against Iranian nuclear or oil infrastructure. At the moment it is not possible to predict with certainty what the final outcome of this escalation will be.
