February 19, 2025

Is the Permafrost really merging? Yes, here are the consequences

The permafrost It is a type of soil, made up of ice, rocks and sediments, which remains frozen throughout the year and its merger It is one of the multiple and serious consequences of climate change. Although it is talking about it relatively, the permafrost plays a crucial role in the regulation climate global And it is also one of the components of the earth’s system more sensitive to global warming. The merger of this particular type of soil typical of high latitude is a process already underwaywith a loss higher than 10% in recent decades.

However, what worries most is not so much the fusion of the ice itself, as its own consequences on the environment. Damage to infrastructure And homesthe awakening of virus dormant for hundreds of thousands of years and the sudden potential release of beyond 1,700 billion tons of gas greenhouse In the atmosphere there are just some of the devastating repercussions of this phenomenon.

The permafrost: what it is, where it is and why it is blending

The permafrost It is that layer of land permanently frozenthat is, which is maintained at temperatures below 0 ° C For at least two consecutive years. It is mainly found in the northern hemisphere, in regions such as the SiberiatheAlaskaThe Canadathe Greenland and theTibetan plateau and theIcelandcovering a surface higher than 19 million km²equal to about 24% of the lands that emerged in the Arctic. In many areas, the permafrost persists from the last ice age and can reach considerable thicknesses, up to several hundreds of meters.

The image shows an area of perennially frozen soil, called permafrost, dominated by the active area, or the most superficial layer of the soil that freezes and defrosts seasonally. Credits: NASA.

This portion of frozen soil is probably one of the natural terrestrial systems most sensitive to climate change. Satellite data collected between the 1997 and the 2018together with situ measurements, they highlighted how the permafrost temperature has increased by approximately 1 ° C for decade. A study published in 2017 In the international scientific journal Nature Climate Change suggests that approximately between 2002 and 2012 they disappeared 3.4 million km² of permafrost. However, it is an estimate with a large margin of error (about ± 2.3 million km²), due to the difficulties related to the measurement of this variable.

The climatic models also indicate that if the global temperature were to stabilize to 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels – the maximum limit set by Paris agreements – beyond 2.5 million km² of permafrost could disappear. In the worst scenario, with an increase of about 6 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels, the permafrost could disappear almost completely.

What are the consequences of the fusion of the permafrost

The environmental impact associated with the defrosting of the Arctic permafrost is significant and multifactorial, and includes the release of greenhouse gases or viruses and natural dangers such as landslides and the formation of craters.

Release of greenhouse gases

First of all, the frozen soil in the Permafrost contains enormous quantities of organic material rich in carboncomposed of remains plants and animals who were unable to decompose due to extremely rigid temperatures. However, with the merger of the permafrost, the bacterial decomposition processes would reactivate, leading to production and the Release of greenhouse gases as a by -product.

Several studies have underlined how the permafrost of the northern hemisphere contains beyond 1,700 billion tons metrics of frozen carbon, Also in the form of methane and carbon dioxide. It is a value well 45 times higher to the amount of co₂ emitted by man in 2023, equal to approximately 3.78 billion tons.

However, it is not yet clear how and when this carbon can be released into the atmosphere. Some forecasts indicate that already in the next 40-60 years It will be possible to measure the splendor of greenhouse gases associated with the merger of the permafrost. The worst scenario involves a sudden release greenhouse gases, with devastating effects on the environment and irreparably compromising any attempt to stop climate change. The most favorable scenario, on the other hand, provides for a gradual release of carbon, allowing scientists to identify and adopt appropriate containment and adaptation measures.

Ice cunes formed by the freezing of the water that flows downwards inside the permafrost. Credits: National Park Service.

Damage to structures and infrastructures

The fusion of the Permafrost also has a strong impact on infrastructure. In fact, at least 120,000 buildings, 40,000 km of roads and 9,500 km of oil pipelines They are found in the areas of permafrost of the northern hemisphere. In Russia, over 60% of the territory is occupied by the Permafrost.

With the merger of ice, the surface morphology of the areas once frozen becomes irregular. The ice, in fact, performs a function similar to that of a binder, keeping cohesive the grains of unwanted soil. Consequently, phenomena of thermocarseism, landslide, Calanche and others superficial erosive processes Of various entities often accompany the fusion of the permafrost, representing a continuous threat to infrastructures and homes.

The negative effects of this phenomenon are already evident in numerous arctic regions. In the city of Norilskin Russia, for example, in 2020 numerous buildings and homes have suffered damage due to the failure of the soil, as well as a serious spill of diesel. Furthermore, starting from 2013, explosions caused by the release of Gas hydrate Following the defrosting of the Permafrost they generated numerous crater in the tundra Siberian.

Release of viruses

Beyond organic and carbon matter, the permafrost holds numerous virussome of which are considered eradicated or almost, such as the Bubonic plague and smallpox, Which, if reimed to circulation, could represent a threat to human health.

Already in August of the 2016about ten people in Siberia were affected by an epidemic of anthraxwhich also caused the death of a 12 -year -old boy. Scientists have identified the origin of the contagion in one Renna carcass re -emerged from the defrosting of the permafrost. In addition, these ice contain microbes existing from much before today’s company, some of which dating back to beyond 400,000 years ago.

Cavities produced by the defrosting of the permafrost. Credits: Noaa.

Disorders in Flora, Fauna and Environment

It should not be ignored how the fusion of the permafrost is transforming the polar regions of the tundra into landscapes muddydetermining the disappearance of the local flora And putting the survival of the fauna that feeds at risk at risk.

Furthermore, when the permafrost located below water bodies, such as lakes, merges, the water infiltrates the ground and disappears, contributing to the intensity of the drought conditions.

Paludosa area produced by the merger of the permafrost. Credits: Noaa.

Bibliography

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Alexander Marchall

Alexander Marchall is a distinguished journalist with over 15 years of experience in the realm of international media. A graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism, Alex has a fervent passion for global affairs and geopolitics. Prior to founding The Journal, he contributed his expertise to several leading publications.