The verdict of the polls is clear: the reform of the separation of careers, a pillar of the centre-right programme, was rejected by the Italians. A result that goes beyond the merit of the technical question and takes on the characteristics of a national political test. If the “Campo Largo” celebrates a newfound unity in the name of victory, the majority has to deal with a burning defeat, between strategic underestimations and heavy absences. But let’s see how the protagonists of the referendum match acted and how they managed the weight of responsibility and the calculation errors.

Carlo Nordio: 4

It’s sad to say it because we’re talking about a respectable person, a sincere liberal, a non-politician who lends himself to the institutions and who brought to the institutions all the good and bad of not being a politician, but the figure of Minister Carlo Nordio comes out of this test heavily dented. He himself recognizes it with intellectual honesty, confirming what was stated earlier. “I take responsibility for what happened”, despite not saying he is willing to take a step back and citing his passion for history and Winston Churchill. “He also lost the elections” (but before that he had won a war).

Nordio brought his expertise to the government and in fact the reform was not bad (whether it was rejected by the Italians is another story) but also a “spontaneity” foreign to the Palace, tending too often to say what he thought, as a normal citizen does, and not what is needed, as is instead appropriate for a politician. To say that No won because of its improvident exits would be ungenerous, they certainly didn’t help.

Giorgia Meloni: 5

The Prime Minister spent her money, and spent it well, when she understood that the match was becoming politicized and staying in the stands would only make things worse. Let’s also say that in the conduct of the electoral campaign in the strict sense there is little to criticize them for. If anything, mistakes have been made before. She did not realize in time that the match would become a referendum on her and paid for the Trump effect, not understanding that a historical phase had ended and remaining a prisoner of the US-Italy mental scheme that she had set for herself.

More generally, he underestimated the magnet effect (for others) that a reform of this type would have caused, that “hands off the Constitution” which is a non-slogan but which works. He didn’t take it fully into account and wasn’t able to come up with a contrary narrative. The references to the family in the woods and to the judges who free immigrants seemed just a way to distract from what others accused were the real reasons for the reform.

Matteo Salvini: 5

While the polls opened Matteo Salvini was in Hungary supporting his friend Orban. This gives an idea of ​​the weight that the League has given to this referendum, and how little it has done. The Northern League seemed to look the other way, withdrawn into itself, as if the matter did not concern the deputy prime minister’s party. A frankly incomprehensible attitude, which will only end up worsening the disagreements between the allies. If there is one thing that all center-right members should have understood, it is that their voters do not allow internal divisions, either everyone wins or loses together.

Antonio Tajani: 5

The separation of careers was Berlusconi’s reform, presented at the beginning of the legislature in the program of the centre-right Forza Italia, then chosen by the entire coalition because it seemed the most “feasible”, the one in which the favor of the Italians was closest to hand. The blue party worked as hard as it could, but in the end the results are there for all to see. More than anything, the “yes” lacked votes from the south, regions where Forza Italia is at least in theory strong (it governs in Calabria, Basilicata, Molise and Sicily) and where much greater support should have come from. It is true that traditionally in the south the opinion vote (as in a referendum) is less strong, but seeing all the blue regions now colored “no” has a certain effect.

Elly Schlein: 7

The secretary of the Democratic Party is the real winner of the referendum. The electoral campaign started with the No vote behind by more than ten points, she got into the saddle and the situation was reversed. He can rightly dust off the slogan he used as soon as he won the PD primaries: “This time too they didn’t see us coming.” He imposed his agenda, dueled remotely with the prime minister and won. Chapeau.

The difficult part for her comes now, because as soon as she crossed the finish line her ally-competitor Giuseppe Conte immediately rang the bell for the primaries. In other words: I won’t let you claim this victory alone. In essence, an internal challenge at Campo Largo begins which is anything but obvious, in which Schlein has a lot to lose. The pitfalls are external to the party (Conte, in fact) but also internal, one above all the mayor of Genoa Silvia Salis. Also because everyone understood that the center-left won, and it was certainly a good health boost, but he won in his favorite playing field, that of “all against”. Building a credible alliance is another thing.

Giuseppe Conte: 7

The 5 Star leader is also among those who open the bottle of champagne, but the haste with which he started talking about primaries betrays a certain degree of anxiety. More than anything, it makes him come openly into the open, a condition that is not always an advantage in politics. Conte is good, he has the right standing for the role of prime minister candidate, he works even better on TV than Schlein and he knows it. But it’s a long way from here to breaking the internal front of the Dems. He will have to find some support, and it won’t be easy. Schlein has covered herself with the area union (the CGIL, with which the secretary boasts solid relationships and which has a good number of votes) and the area associations (Anpi, Arci, environmentalism), a fort that will not be easy for the people’s lawyer to breach.

What happens now?

The victory of the “No” is not only a brake on justice reform, but opens a new phase. The center-left has demonstrated that it knows how to win when it plays from the back (“everyone against it”), but the construction of a credible government alliance remains the real stumbling block. For the Meloni government, however, it is the moment for self-criticism: the honeymoon with the country seems to have suffered the first real institutional shock.