Macron's Low Blow to the Left: What Happens Now in France

Macron’s Low Blow to the Left: What Happens Now in France

Emmanuel Macron’s first low blow to the French left has been struck. The ring is that of the National Assembly, the prize up for grabs was the election of the president of the National Assembly. Despite the electoral flop (around 20%, but only thanks to the system of the republican ‘retreat’), the French president obtained the re-election of Yaël Braun-Pivet, thanks to the votes of the right (formerly Les Republicains). The New Popular Front took it badly and denounced the participation in the vote of the resigning ministers, not exactly a gesture of good manners institutional.

As he points out The World “since July 7, the presidential camp has behaved as if it had not lost the elections” and the reconfirmation of Braun-Pivet is proof of this. All this, however, was possible thanks to the rigidity of the New Popular Front, entangled in a thousand squabbles between party leaders and supporting actors rather than in the search for an agreement to conquer the fourth most powerful political office in France. The logic of compromise prevailed over that of arm wrestling.

The reconfirmation of Macron’s deputy

The Macronist deputy Braun-Pivet, already president of the Assembly in the last legislature, won only in the third round. The 13-vote gap with the candidate of the New Popular Front, the communist André Chassaigne, was fatal for the left. Third place, but much more distant, for Sébastien Chenu, of the Rassemblement national. The left is crying scandal, speaking of “fraud” and threatening to resort to “legal remedies”.

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The most severe warning comes from Eric Ciotti, the former Republican who after the European elections attempted an agreement with the far right but was ousted by his own party colleagues. Now that he leads the 16 seats of the “A Droite” formation, he called the alliance between his former party and Rénaissance a “democratic robbery”. If the election is flawless in terms of rules, the spectacle offered was anything but edifying for the Fifth Republic.

Dress rehearsal for the prime minister

For Macron, it was a dress rehearsal before playing the trump card of a prime minister who is still an expression of his party or at least close to him. The ground was prepared since July 7, when he denied there had been a victory attributable to one of the political forces in the field. The left, between the “rebels” of France Insoumise, socialists, ecologists and communists, was shattered in a battle of crossed vetoes, so much so that the leader of the Greens Marine Tondelier called it “shameful”.

The center has taken advantage of this, sewing and embroidering relationships with the Republicans. The numbers are small, but enough to prevent the left from governing. It cannot be called a theft, however, if the New Popular Front has not been able to unite as its electorate has asked of it. La France Insoumise has put itself on a pedestal and does not want to disappoint the radical wing. The Socialists, despite having fewer seats, do not intend to abdicate to the group of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Fragmented Parliament

The election of Braun-Pivot allows some of the main institutional roles to be divided between the Republicans and the Rénaissance. To knock out the left, Macron needs a name that is credible for both the center and the right, who differs from the resigned Gabriel Attal. How the vote will be conducted and the risks associated with a very narrow majority do not seem to be a priority for the Macronist camp. The French Parliament has never been so fragmented: eleven political groups. A record. Eight of these have declared themselves “opposition” to the current resigned government.

In addition to the New Popular Front, which brings together 193 deputies, there is the Republican right (41 members and six related parties), led by Laurent Wauquiez, who declared himself in opposition in order to claim the presidency of the Finance Committee, despite negotiations with the president’s party being ongoing. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National is the strongest single party (not a coalition), bringing together 123 members and three related parties. Then there are the 21 members of the Freedom, Independents, Overseas and Territories (Liot) group, chaired by Stéphane Lenormand.

A dangerous Risk

The other 166 deputies from various political parties have instead declared themselves in support of the government. The nomination of the prime minister, which the Elysée could even postpone until October, will be the result of a game of Risk, where instead of tanks, what will count are the positions that can be offered to the many political groups, or individual deputies, willing to shift the axis from anti- to pro-Macron. In the meantime, however, the credibility of the republic is dissolving. A large part of the population already feels taken for a ride. Even if it does not guarantee an absolute majority, citizens have nevertheless given the left an advantage so that it changes course with respect to the actions of the tenant of the Elysée. But the red-green flags only flew together on the night of July 7, after which each followed its own wind. And this could be fatal for them.