Almost a week from the general elections in Germany, the conservative block of the favorite Friedrich Merz began to pave the way for a possible great coalition with the Social Democrats of the Chancellor Olaf Scholz, on condition of looking for a formula to limit irregular immigration without i votes of the far right. After an apparently insurmountable dispute on the opening of the conservatives to receive the support of the AFD to pass their law on migration, the rivals have taken on a more reconciling tone in the last few days. According to sources of Merz’s CDU cited by the newspaper “Handelsblatt”, the conservatives are preparing preliminary interviews with both Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Greens.
“I believe that a compromise between the union and the SPD on migratory policy is necessary and possible,” said the current Minister of the Interior, the Social Democratic Nancy Faeser, in an interview with “Neue Osnabrucker Zeitung”. However, Faeser stressed that Merz’s plans to close the borders to asylum seekers are not feasible “nor legally or practically”. The minister instead proposed an agreement based on the bills already existing to implement the European pact on migration and kindergarten, and observed that his party is open to “modifications and reasonable additions”.
Scholz himself underlined to the media of the Funke group that irregular immigration is a “priority” for him and that after the presumably Islamist attack that caused at least 36 injured in the city of Munich on Thursday, is ready for new legal reforms. The Greens also declared themselves open to a coalition, but their political positions and the consequent refusal of the Christian-social union (CSU), Bavarian brother of the CDU, make them for the moment the “option B”.
Who wins the elections in Germany
The SPD, currently third in the polls, clarified that the “hot repatriations” of asylum seekers at the borders supported by Merz constitute a red line, as they contravene European law, but have reported that they are willing to negotiate on the rest of the measures to limit immigration. In return, the conservatives are willing to soften their position on economic issues, in particular as regards the reform of the constitutional mechanism of the brake to debt, one of the requests of the SPD and the Greens, which want to contract more loans to finance the economic recovery. “It can be discussed, even if not at the beginning,” said Merz in his first television duel with Scholz last Sunday on a possible reform of the mechanism that can limit the annual debt of Germany to 0.35% of GDP.
According to the politicalologist Heiko Giebler of the Berlin Center for social research, to get into debt more, even if through an emergency parliamentary declaration that would temporarily suspend the brake, could encourage the SPD to accept a greater increase in military expenses, as required by the conservatories .
However, the distribution of seats in the lower room is difficult to predict, since two forces, the left populists of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the liberal party (FDP) still fear not to reach the 5% threshold necessary to obtain the representation. If they ended up uniting, this could alter the division of forces and force the conservatives, which categorically exclude a pact with the AFD, to look for two partners instead of one.
“With the FDP in Parliament, the black-green (CDU-Verdi) would be numerically excluded and the most probable variant would be a ‘coalition of Germany’ of Union, SPD and FDP,” said the liberal leader Christian Lindner in one ‘ Interview with the Swiss newspaper “Nzz”.
The latest polls
According to the ‘Politbarometer’ survey published on Friday by the ZDF public broadcaster, the conservatives remain at 30% in the intentions of voting, followed by the far right, which obtaining 20% would double the results of 2021, from the SPD that drops by almost 10 points to 16%, and from the Greens, almost stable to 14%. The left would enter the Bundestag with 7%, while FDP and BSW would be excluded with 4%.
What is really at stake with the elections in Germany
