Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico doesn’t sleep easy these days. He has a thought that grips him: the supply of Russian gas to Slovakia. This is in fact threatened by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky who has announced that he does not want to renew the contract that allows the passage of Russian gas into Ukrainian territory, which expires at the end of the year. Bratislava is therefore forced to look for new supply routes.
Thus, in a completely unexpected visit to Moscow, the Slovakian left-wing populist went on Sunday 22 December to shake hands with Vladimir Putin: at the center of the face-to-face meeting, explained Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, there was ” of course” the question of the transit of Russian gas. Putin, for his part, confirmed to the leader of Smer (which means “direction” in Slovak) that he wanted to continue “supplying gas to the West and Slovakia”. But this will ultimately depend on Kiev’s decision. The Bratislava media are betting on reaching an agreement with Putin on gas. If the agreement is not reached, the most affected countries will be Slovakia, Italy, Austria and the Czech Republic, the Kremlin said the day after the meeting of the two leaders.
What changes for Europe if Zelensky does not renew the agreement on Russian gas
“We will not extend” the transit agreement towards Europe, “we will not give Moscow the opportunity to earn further billions on our blood and on the skin of Ukrainians”, announced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the European Council on 19 December. Confirmation then also came from Putin, the following day in the end-of-year press conference: the five-year contract will expire on December 31st and will not be renewed. Nearly three years into the conflict, Ukraine’s president has ruled out extending a deal with Russian state energy company Gazprom that allows it to export natural gas via the country’s pipeline network to Slovakia, Hungary and other European countries central.
Slovakia’s Kremlin-friendly PM Robert Fico holds urgent gas talks with Putin following @ZelenskyyUa‘s refusal to continue gas transit via Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/RtuNTxhtNW
— Jakub Bielamowicz (@KubaBielamowicz) December 22, 2024
A decision that was not liked by Hungary and Slovakia, which are heavily dependent on Russian gas. Fico is also on the same line as Viktor Orban, who blames Kiev for the failure to reach an agreement for peace talks, and has stopped aid to Ukraine since the beginning of his new mandate as prime minister, a year ago. Since taking on the role of prime minister of Slovakia, Fico has blocked Slovak military aid to Ukraine and criticized sanctions on Russia, positioning himself with Orban among the most pro-Russian leaders in the Union.
But if Zelensky does not renew the agreement on Russian gas, what changes for Europe and therefore for us? Let’s take a step back. The main transit line remaining, after the closure of Nord Stream in 2022, is the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline, which will be closed at the end of the year. This pipeline carries gas from the Russian Federation through Ukraine to Slovakia, where it splits into branches heading to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Zelensky shuts down Russian gas: “It will no longer pass through Ukraine.” A way out is being studied
Italy, together with Hungary, is among the countries that obtain supplies via this route. Ukraine currently markets approximately 15 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year to a group of European countries. The failure to renew the transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, according to analysts, could contribute to an increase in European gas prices. However, Europe’s energy security would not be compromised, given that several European countries have equipped themselves with infrastructure to receive liquefied fuel (LNG).
The possible (but difficult) compromise
Some Eastern European countries are considering securing supplies from Azerbaijan, which could transit through Ukraine, but no deal has yet been concluded. In fact, Moscow should agree to act as a ‘mediator’ for the transit of Azeri gas (or from other nations in the region), obviously asking that it be paid a commission, which would still be better than losing the revenue altogether. But Kiev fears that Russian gas could still be sold in the mix, playing a sort of shell game, and asks for reassurances to ensure that this does not happen.
In the aftermath of the meeting with the Slovak leader, Putin said that the situation with European countries purchasing his Russian gas, the passage of which is ensured until December 31 through the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline, is very complicated and needs more attention.
The situation is all evolving. While efforts continue to avoid blocking the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Central Europe starting from January 1st, on December 23rd an upward opening was recorded for natural gas on the TTF square in Amsterdam. Futures contracts for the month of January gain 0.39% to 44.3 euros per MWh.
Fico is the third EU leader to go to Putin
The topic of the conflict in Ukraine was predictably addressed by the two leaders. Fico said he had discussed with Putin the possibility of an end to the war in Ukraine and an improvement in relations between Russia and Slovakia, which he intends to “make stable.” Fico’s visit was only the third visit of a leader of an EU country to Russia after the Russian invasion of the neighboring country: before that there had been those of the Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer in April 2022 and the Hungarian Prime Minister Orban in July 2024.
Fico’s decision to travel to Russia for trade talks will be controversial among his fellow EU leaders and violates the Union’s public commitments to end dependence on Moscow for gas imports. Fico’s decision to travel to Russia for trade talks will be viewed as controversial by European leaders, as it contradicts the Union’s commitments to end dependence on Russian natural gas supplies.
