After NOAA warned of acoronal mass ejection (CME) produced by the Sun last February 1st and associated with a X8.1 class flare (the highest class), several headlines have begun to spread reporting the expected arrival on February 5 of «a solar storm whose effects on Earth could be “powerful”».
The one coming, however, is not a solar storm (a journalistic term used incorrectly), but one geomagnetic stormi.e. a disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field caused by the activity of the Sun. According to forecasts, in fact, on 5 February 2026 the Earth will be reached by a “minor” geomagnetic storm, category G1 (the lowest on a scale ranging from G1 to G5). In short, nothing catastrophic or dangerous for our Planet: just think that the latest geomagnetic storm that hit the Earth, which occurred on January 20th just two weeks ago, reached the G4 category, but did not generate risks for the population.
Alarmismtherefore, it is unjustified and there is nothing to fear: you just need to know how to read the data for confirmation. So let’s see how the NOAA forecasts are interpreted (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and if there is a chance of seeing the Northern Lights in Italy.
G1 geomagnetic storm coming: what are the real risks
To understand what the risks are, if any, in the event of a G1 class geomagnetic storm, the first thing to do is to consult the official NOAA page, which contains all the data and forecasts on space weather conditions.
At that point, by consulting the sheet also shown below, we can better understand the dynamics of the events: on 1 February 2026, a class X8.1 solar flare was recorded – the highest intensity class – starting from sunspot AR4366. The flare is nothing more than a sudden release of energy (which was previously stored in the magnetic field of the Sun) in the form of energetic electromagnetic radiation.
At this point, on the NOAA page we can consult the forecasts which, at the moment, indicate a G1 class geomagnetic storm for February 5th.
This type of event could cause weak fluctuations in the electricity grid, with a possible smaller impact on satellite operations. In short, the arrival of the storm could have possibilities minimal effects on electricity networks and telecommunications.
The acronyms R1-R2, however, respectively indicate the possibility of minor (category R1) or moderate (R2) blackouts on local scalewhile R3-R5 the possibility of blackout intense (categories R3, R4 or R5). So, technically, the risk of a blackout cannot be completely ruled out, but this probability does not justify the alarmist headlines.
It must be said, however, that predictions in this case are particularly difficult to make and it is not certain that they will prove correct: it is therefore possible that the parameters measured by NOAA change over the hours.
The odds of seeing the Northern Lights from Italy
But, therefore, will it be possible to see the Northern Lights again from Italy? Let’s say it right away: the chances are almost nil.
This is because the disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field is measured with a parameter called Kp indexwhich ranges from 0 to 9: based on this value, NOAA establishes the intensity category of the geomagnetic storm, from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme).
The geomagnetic storms of recent years have shown that, at our latitudes, it is possible to observe auroral phenomena (such as red auroras or auroral arcs) with a Kp index of 7. The forecasts, however, indicate that in the February 5 event the index will reach a maximum value of Kp 5. The aurora, therefore, should only be visible at the highest latitudes.
However, forecasts may change or prove incorrect, as we said above: to form, in fact, auroras not only need sufficient geomagnetic disturbance, but also the right alignment between the flow of particles expelled from the Sun and the magnetic field of our planet. All we have to do is wait and see if we’ll be lucky!
