“Should I cut or leave?”. The debate on the reduction of the Rai license fee is very similar to a negotiation between a delicatessen and his customers. Regardless of the merit of the measure, it is clear that the battle over the 20 euros more or less in the bill is just a pretext that the League and Forza Italia exploit to re-establish or confirm the current balance of power.

Who is the second best? Who is Giorgia Meloni’s favorite? If one of the two contenders is wrong in substance, the other is wrong in method. Italian politics has its rituals, its strict rules and its dangerous precedents. Before his departure, Knight Silvio Berlusconi prophesied that the opposition would reunite after the European elections and that hard times would come for the Meloni government. And, in fact, the centre-left, after having failed by a few percentage points in Liguria, won in Emilia Romagna and Umbria.

Historical events and events show that on average governments in Italy last about two years, after which a slow attrition and a long series of internal troubles begin within the ruling majority. In the First and Second Republics governments fell at the behest of minor parties, while only in the Third was this trend reversed. Until the beginning of the 90s, seaside governments were born or fell by the will of so-called secular parties such as the PRI, the PLI, the PSDI etc… Only in 2019 Matteo Salvini, thanks to the 34% obtained in the European elections, brought down the yellow-green government, convinced of returning to early elections and of being able to be crowned prime minister within a few months. The second Conte government, however, perished at the hands of another Matteo, the Tuscan Renzi who managed to bring Mario Draghi to Palazzo Chigi.

The former president of the ECB, however, fell because Conte caused the crisis to avoid the extinction of the M5S and the center-right seized the opportunity to capitalize on his advantage over his opponents. Assuming and not granting that one of Meloni’s two allies, Tajani or Salvini, really wants to bring the government to its knees, they would have to deal with the nefarious fate experienced by those who caused a government crisis in the past. The various Fausto Bertinotti, Gianfranco Fini and Clemente Mastella have literally disappeared from the Palace. One of the golden rules of recent politics is, in fact, that which provides for the downsizing, disappearance or political end of anyone who causes a party split or a government crisis.

The “secret” meeting between Giorgia Meloni and Sergio Mattarella

It is true that we are no longer under a pandemic, but the international context, with the outbreak of a Third World War which from time to time becomes increasingly imminent, should advise the contenders to be more cautious also because, at least in the short term, moves of this type could only that strengthen Meloni. In the long term, however, the weakness of the allies could lead the center-right to suffer new electoral defeats, perhaps as early as next year’s regional elections.