According to what was stated by sources belonging to the CIAthe main intelligence agency of the United States of Americathe Russia would be preparing attacks by means of drones, released by container shipsagainst targets located in the territories of some European countries, among which they are explicitly mentioned France, Spain and Italy. There media bomb he blew it up Spanish newspaper El Mundo and, given the contents, it contributed to spreading panic almost everywhere in the world of information.
Almost immediately came the words of denial from the Minister of Defense Guido Crosettowho spoke of the lack of feedback from the Italian side and at the same time invited us to contain the proliferation of news that could contribute to aggravating the already high tensions. Being news of great importance, it is necessary to carefully evaluate its potential truthfulness and the scenarios it could open up.
The plans revealed by the CIA according to El Mundo
The journalistic scoop was exploded by the Spanish newspaper “El Mundo”: citing Lithuanian sources, who in turn would relay news apparently of American origin, to be precise directly from the CIA, states that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation they are planning to hit targets located in the territories of France, Spain and Italy. These are member countries of bothEuropean Union how much of BORN, committed to varying degrees to support the country’s war effortsUkrainefrom the February 24, 2022 engaged in a large-scale defensive conventional war against the Russia. Such attacks, the newspaper reveals, would be carried out through the use of drones released from container ships specially equipped.
That said, there are two hypothetical scenarios that are worth wondering about, at least so as not to be caught unprepared should they materialize.
The first scenario is the beginning of an all-out war
The first scenario we must face is that of the so-called “total war”. That is, hypothesize that any attacks that Moscow is about to carry out against European countries by means of drones are the prelude to an offensive on a large scale and in style to the detriment of Europe.
At the moment we can already classify this gloomy scenario to the realm of “political fantasy”: in order to be able to think about attacking Europe, the Russians would have to carry out huge preparations That they certainly wouldn’t go unnoticedespecially in this moment of creeping international crisis.
In particular, as already underlined in past articles characterized by a similar tenor, the movements of the Russian Navywhich in a context of open war with the West should fulfill a whole series of missions of primary importance in Moscow’s war plans. It was precisely the massive Russian naval deployment in the area of Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean It will be the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 that will raise the final alarm regarding Moscow’s intentions to start war.
It is essential to underline the fact that nothing similar is currently happening in today’s context. The maneuvers of the Russian Navy, with the notable exception of Black Sea Fleet and of Caspian Flotilladirectly involved in the war effort on the Ukrainian front, are to be ascribed to ordinary administration. In light of this critically important fact, we can confidently say that Russia is not about to launch an all-out war against Europe.
The second scenario leads to a new stage of hybrid warfare
Another scenario to take into consideration is that relating to “hybrid warfare”, that complex of operations with nebulous outlines that can be classified as “acts of war”, but which they are designed specifically for keep conflict within “an acceptable level of tension and/or violence”.
The objective, in this eventuality, is therefore to send a message of a political nature, but ensuring that the situation does not degenerate into an open war scenario. In this case, drones would be the perfect weapon, given their proliferation on a planetary level.
This scenario, although attractive, presents problems: if on the one hand it is true that a whole series of highly profitable strategic objectives are located right along the Spanish, French and Italian coasts and drones, perhaps of medium-large size, would be the ideal weapons to hit them, the aforementioned container ships would hardly escape capture by the authorities of the countries involved and, once subjected to a thorough inspectionwould reveal the thread that ties the vessels to the state that used them for the covert operation. This fact also removes plausibility from the “hybrid war” scenario.
The escalation of tension continues
Regardless of the plausibility or otherwise of the situations described above, it is necessary to underline that since the incipit of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the geostrategic tension between Russia and Europe (and the West in general) is visibly increasing: many voices have been raised to raise the alarm that, if this tug-of-war were to spiral out of control at some point, the chances of an all-out war breaking out between Russia and Europe would increase considerably, with you exist unpredictable.
