Olaf Scholz’s return trip from the G20 in Rio de Janeiro will certainly be accompanied by quite a bit of turbulence. Political turmoil, which is growing among the leaders of the German Social Democratic Party, divided on the candidate to propose for the chancellorship race.
A possible official decision on Scholz’s candidacy was expected by the end of the month, but it could be brought forward to put an end to the growing tensions that risk further damaging the party. Scholz is determined to run again, but knows that there is no consensus around his name. On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil, the SPD leader avoided directly answering questions about his candidacy. In an interview with The Worldhe simply said: “The SPD and I want to win this election together.” But the problem is that according to the polls, with him at the helm of the party the election can only be lost.
A creaking trust
The SPD leaders have so far supported Scholz as a candidate for the national elections. However, calls have grown for him to give way to a more popular candidate. On Monday, two federal deputies from North Rhine-Westphalia, Dirk Wiese and Wiebke Esdar, were among the first to openly question the chancellor’s re-nomination. According to them, it is crucial to “identify the best possible political team” to face the early elections.
To compete with Kanzlercurrently more unpopular than ever, is first and foremost his Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius. A loyal politician, who defines himself as a “soldier of the party”, and who however has recently no longer ruled out the option of entering the field: it was never in his plans, he has explained several times, “but in politics you can’t never rule anything out. What I can rule out is that I will never become Pope.”
In the last few hours, a third name has also been circulating in Berlin: that of Labor Minister Hubertus Heil, who would have a more acceptable profile in the east of the country than his colleague who is responsible for rearming Germany and supporting Ukraine against Vladimir Putin. The Laender of the former East Germany are notoriously attracted to populists, who are also strong in their demand to stop the sending of weapons to Ukraine and lead the parties to a negotiation, whatever the cost.
The crisis in the polls
The polls on the early elections of February 23rd do not please the Social Democrats, much less the Kanzler. Personal approval for Scholz is given at 18% against 66% for Pistorius, who appears to be one of the most popular politicians in the nation, even more than the leader of the popular CDU Friedrich Merz. As regards party support, the SPD languishes at 15%, the conservative alliance of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) remains the main force with a stable 33% of the votes , with a clear advantage over their opponents.
Surveys in hand, the party’s base is showing itself to be increasingly critical, as highlighted by former leader Sigmar Gabriel: “Resistance against Scholz is growing among the base. Courageous policies are needed now.” The leadership debate will culminate on November 30, when the official candidate will be announced in a speech to members. Scholz hopes to win the party’s support, but many fear that his candidacy could further undermine the chances of the SPD, already under pressure after the fall of the coalition on November 6.
