Europe must increase defense spending because the target of two percent of GDP is no longer enough. And it is no longer enough, especially now that the United States will return under the leadership of Donald Trump, with the Republican having already warned that he does not intend to be part of a NATO in which not everyone does their part proportionally.
“We must do more. It will not be enough to stop at two percent, because in the long term this would mean that our deterrence capacity is not strong enough. Remaining at two percent is not enough”, the new Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance, Mark Rutte. The former Dutch prime minister will chair a NATO ministerial today (3 December) in which he will also report on the meeting he had with the Republican in Florida on 22 November. And at the center of the discussion with the tycoon, Rutte explained, was the request that all members of the alliance increase their defense investments.
The European Defense Fund
With this in mind, EU member states are close to an agreement on a new 1.5 billion euro fund to help support industry in the bloc and Ukraine over the next three years. An agreement on the European Defense Investment Program (EDIP) is expected to arrive by the end of the year and would allow the purchase of military equipment made up of up to 35 percent of components produced outside Europe.
Until now, Emmanuel Macron’s France was strongly opposing this last point, to defend local industries, but the veto fell under pressure from allies, some of whom underlined how some armaments can be bought more easily in other parts of the world , where their development is most advanced. And so it seems that an agreement was reached on a 35-65 percent split, which was the result of a balance between the ambition to strengthen the European defense industry in the long term and the possibility of purchasing equipment more immediately ready for use.
The compromise
Brussels is identifying key projects of “common interest” that could benefit from EDIP funds and is also trying to push member states to make more collaborative investments and joint procurement. If the agreement were to pass, the exemptions would open the door to the joint purchase or production on European territory of products such as the Mim-104 Patriot missiles from the US company Raytheon.
The rotating Hungarian presidency has proposed that goods and services from non-EU countries can be eligible to benefit from EDIP funds provided that the EU-based legal entity requesting the money has the possibility to decide without restrictions on the adaptation and evolution of product design.
But Poland and the Netherlands want to soften these criteria. Both countries are large buyers of American and other non-European weapons; the Netherlands is looking to produce the Patriots locally under license, while Poland is looking to co-produce the South Korean weapons.
Peace in Ukraine
In addition to the issue of defense spending between Europe and the US, discussions will soon open on how to continue (or not continue) to support Ukraine’s war effort. A peace deal that is too favorable to Russia would pose a “grave threat” to both Europe and the United States, Rutte told Trump at their meeting last month. According to the former Dutch prime minister, China, Iran and North Korea would benefit first and foremost from a resolution of the conflict unfavorable to Kiev.
The message to Trump
“We cannot allow a situation where Kim Jong Un, the Russian leader and Xi Jinping, together with Iran, high-five each other because we have reached an agreement that is not favorable to Ukraine, because in the long term it would pose a serious threat for the security not only of Europe, but also of the United States,” Rutte said in an interview with the Financial Times.
Rutte said he told Trump at their meeting in Florida on Nov. 22 that the president-elect should be careful “of the missile technology that is now being sent from Russia to North Korea, which poses a grave threat not only to Korea of the South and Japan, but also for the territory of the United States”. In a veiled reference to Taiwan, the Dutchman argued that Chinese President Xi Jinping “may have ideas about something else in the future if there is no good deal” for Ukraine.
Ukraine in NATO
Zelensky has called for placing Ukraine “under the NATO umbrella” and hopes to receive a formal invitation to join the alliance, which, however, the United States and Germany have ruled out in the near future. And for the new Secretary General, increasing military support for Kiev ahead of possible peace talks is more important than discussing membership. “The most important thing now is to make sure that whenever Zelensky decides to participate in the peace talks, he can do so from a position of strength,” Rutte said.
Zelensky: “Truce possible with Ukraine under the NATO umbrella”
