The agreement between Israel and Hamas based on non-trust: the objective remains mutual elimination
The truce agreement between Israel and Hamas marks the end of another tragic conflict and offers a moment of respite for the civilian population. It is important to celebrate the achievement of a ceasefire, which interrupts the spiral of violence and suffering and undoubtedly represents a step forward towards the stabilization of the region. However, it is essential to recognize the fragility of this compromise so as not to generate easy illusions or find ourselves caught by surprise, if (hopefully never or as late as possible) the conflict were to reignite, perhaps caused by some involuntary accident. The ideological and strategic differences between the two parties involved, which add to the differences of views within both Israel and Hamas and the wider and more complex Palestinian world, remain profound.
Hamas’ ultimate goal
Hamas, for its part, considers the truce a strategic victory that brings the movement closer to its final goal: the erasure of Israel from the map. Then there is the ‘success’ in terms of international legitimacy: Hamas, by dealing directly with Qatar, Egypt, the United States and Israel, has obtained recognition of a formal, official role as a true and direct interlocutor of legitimate, solid governments and states , recognized by international law. Forced to negotiate with a movement that – let’s not forget – remains a terrorist, extremist organization that has no formal recognition on a legal level. Hamas emerges from this affair with a much stronger political and institutional weight than before, with the considerable success of the release of many Palestinians and treated as if it were a nation even if it is not and does not represent it.
The intermediate goal for Israel
On the other side there is Israel, which celebrates this truce as an undoubted result which allows the hostages to be freed, to give an answer to the people who were calling for an agreement to bring their citizens back home, who accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of wanting the war for the sake of war. However, the current Israeli government has not deleted its true strategic objective from its agenda: the destruction of Hamas. And therefore the truce over the hostages represents not a definitive success, but an intermediate goal in view of the final result. For Israel, the agreement is the beginning of the decline of Hamas, and it will try to keep it out of the reconstruction phase of Gaza and the new governance of the Strip.
A very difficult undertaking considering the rooting of the movement led by Mohammed Sinwar (brother of the leader Yahia, killed by Israel during the 15 months of this war), the little consideration enjoyed by the elderly Abu Mazen’s Palestinian National Authority and the important “sponsorship” enjoyed by the movement.
A break to reorganize forces and ideas
For Hamas and Israel, in any case, the truce is also providential on a tactical and military level: a pause that allows them to reorganize forces and ideas and reduce international pressure, to study different attack plans, less impactful but equally directed towards the own – divergent – objectives. The changed attitude towards the United States certainly influenced the achievement of the agreement: we went from a formal, but not substantial respect towards the Biden administration, to awe towards the nascent Trump administration. Who had promised to unleash “hell” if the hostages were not freed by January 20, the day of his inauguration.
This confirms that, once again, the US attitude towards the Middle East (including, obviously, the posture it will hold towards Iran, director, financier and maneuverer of many movements operating in the region, such as Hamas and Hezbollah ), will influence the duration and effectiveness of this truce and the path towards a possible peace.