Europe is experiencing “a historic moment”, in which there is “the realistic prospect of bringing one or more candidate countries to the finish line during the mandate of this Commission”, therefore by 2029. This is the commissioner’s prediction to Enlargement, Marta Kos, on the day in which Montenegro closed three “chapters” of its path and Albania opened a new cluster on foreign policy. These are EU jargon words, but in practice they mean that the two Balkan countries are proceeding with the complicated process of fully entering the Union club. However, progress is not evident for all states in the region.
The summit
Today (Wednesday 18 December), the summit between the EU and the Western Balkans is underway in Brussels, in which the leaders of Serbia, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro and North Macedonia will participate. Of these six countries, only Kosovo is not officially a candidate for EU membership. Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia have started negotiations, while Albania and North Macedonia have been granted candidate status. The summit is not formally dedicated to enlargement, but Balkan leaders will use the gathering to push their own agenda and improve relations with the bloc.
After years of neglect, the Western Balkans have forcefully returned to the agenda of the EU, which seeks to stem Russian influence in the region. Those who show signs of moving away from Moscow are rewarded, while for those who don’t, things get complicated. Thus, for example, Montenegro has overtaken Serbia, which began the arduous journey towards EU membership more than ten years ago, but has made little progress since then and is facing a Dutch veto.
Criticism of Serbia
President Aleksandar Vucic is criticized for his autocratic leadership and is striking a difficult balance between the Western powers on the one hand and China and Russia on the other. For example, it has refused to join EU sanctions against Moscow and now faces the prospect of its sole oil refiner being sanctioned by the US and UK.
“In recent months, some countries have made great strides towards the EU,” Kos acknowledged. “Montenegro, Serbia and Albania have signaled their clear ambition to close accession negotiations by the end of 2026 and 2027 respectively, and the Commission stands ready to support them in achieving their goals,” the Commissioner said.
Montenegro model candidate
Montenegro is considered one of the best candidates for EU membership. The country applied in 2008 and began formal talks in 2012. According to its own optimistic forecast, it will be a member in 2028, although the road will likely be bumpy due to a pro-Serbian and pro-Russian bloc in the national government .
After Croatia’s entry in 2013, the country aimed to overcome the stalemate of new accessions, positioning itself as a reliable partner. Prime Minister Milojko Spajić boasted this week that his government had “achieved in 12 months what our dear predecessors achieved in exactly 12 years.” “This is just the beginning,” he added.
Yesterday the General Affairs Council, in conclusions on Enlargement, applauded the objective of Albania and Montenegro to “continue rapid progress” on their respective paths towards the EU and “encourages all political forces to follow the ambitious plan for closure of accession negotiations”.
The tone of the text is more concerned regarding Kosovo, invited, together with Serbia, to find a “sustainable solution to the situation in the north”, where tension remains high between the two nations. Concerns also emerge regarding Bosnia-Herzegovina, where the EU complains about the initiatives of the country’s Serbian entity (Republika Srpska), which would go “against the EU path” of the country, including “the secessionist rhetoric and the questioning of the constitutional order”.
