Relations between the great world powers promise to be more heated than ever in the coming years, with the United States on one side and the European Union on the other, who have decided to rely on the hawks for their foreign policy. It was easy to imagine that Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections would shake up world geopolitics and the names that the Republican is fielding for his government team fully confirm expectations.
Rubio Secretary of State
The New York Times is virtually certain that the next Secretary of State will be Marco Rubio, who is probably the most radical option on the shortlist for the role. The Florida senator of Cuban origins has in recent years expressed himself in favor of a muscular foreign policy towards countries considered geopolitical enemies of the USA, such as China, Iran and Cuba.
In the past he has found himself at odds with more moderate Republicans regarding the need to support military interventions abroad but, with support for Ukraine becoming increasingly unpopular among the population, he has recently moved to positions closer to those of Trump stating that the conflict has reached a stalemate and “must be brought to an end.” “The Biden administration won’t admit it publicly, but the United States is funding a standoff in Ukraine. It’s time for some common sense,” he said recently in a television interview.
The Biden Administration won’t admit it publicly, but the United States is funding a stalemate in Ukraine. It’s time for some commonsense here. pic.twitter.com/AGMWRiBZA4
— Senator Marco Rubio (@SenMarcoRubio) November 6, 2024
From critic to Trump supporter
First elected to the Senate in 2010, Rubio, like Vice President J.D. Vance, is among the former fierce critics of tycoon who then converted to Trumpism on the road to Damascus. In the 2016 Republican primaries, he described the billionaire as a “crook” and “the vulgarest person to ever aspire to the presidency.” But after Trump’s victory, the Florida senator began mending ties with him, serving as an informal foreign policy adviser and helping him prepare for his first debate against Biden in 2020. In 2019, he helped persuade Trump to adopt a harsh sanctions policy against Venezuela to try to remove its left-wing authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro.
China’s opponent
However, Beijing has always been his bête noire, and he was co-president of the bipartisan Congress-Executive Commission on China, which had the aim of developing an aggressive policy towards the Asian giant. In 2020, Rubio sponsored a bill that sought to prevent the importation of Chinese goods produced with the use of forced labor by China’s ethnic Uighur minority.
Most recently, the Republican expressed full American support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Late last year, when a peace activist asked him what he thought of the numerous deaths of Palestinian civilians, he replied: “I think Hamas is 100 percent to blame.”
Unconditional support for Israel
And the nomination of Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN also makes clear that we will move towards unconditional support for Israel from Washington. Stefanik accused the international organization of anti-Semitism. “The United Nations has passed a shameful anti-Semitic resolution by majority vote. Once again the anti-Semitic rot of the UN is on full display, while it punishes Israel for defending itself and rewards terrorists supported by Iran,” he declared last September at the general assembly.
Completing the picture is the choice for the position of National Security Advisor of Michael Waltz, a former military man who has criticized Chinese activity in the Asia-Pacific and expressed the need for the United States to be ready for a potential conflict in the region . In the past Waltz worked at the Pentagon in the George W. Bush administration and when Biden decided to disengage from Afghanistan he asked to reverse course and relaunch military operations in the region.
The clash between Europe and Russia
And Europe was no different in the choice of its representatives for foreign and defense policy, even though we are still talking about less radical politicians. In the new Commission, two strategic roles have been given to representatives of the Baltic countries, those who most push for the hard line against Vladimir Putin’s Russia: foreign policy has been entrusted to the Estonian Kaja Kallas and the new defense portfolio to the Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius.
Just today in his hearing in the European Parliament Kallas clarified how he thinks regarding support for Ukraine. “The war will end when Russia realizes that it made a mistake like in Afghanistan, when it withdraws its troops and realizes that it cannot win in Ukraine. If we support Ukraine resolutely, Russia will realize that it has made a mistake and that we couldn’t win the war”, the future High Representative told MEPs.
Iron Lady
The leader of the Estonian Reform Party has been prime minister of the former Soviet country since 2021 and was the first to alert her European colleagues of a possible attack by Putin against Ukraine. When this prediction became reality he pushed to strengthen the EU’s external defenses, first and foremost to defend his small nation of just 1.2 million inhabitants.
Under his leadership, Estonia, in proportion to its size, has become among the main suppliers of weapons to Kiev. Her firmness in maintaining the need to support the conflict until Russia’s defeat earned her the nickname the new “Iron Lady”. And sparks are therefore expected between her and Rubio.
