The hearings of the 26 commissioners appointed by Ursula von der Leyen are over, but the agreement regarding the European Parliament vote that gives the definitive green light to the EU executive is not really solid. In addition to disagreements and reservations relating to some key appointments, such as vice president Teresa Ribera and executive vice president Raffaele Fitto, it remains to be seen whether there still exists a stable majority capable of supporting the team outlined by von der Leyen in collaboration with the heads of government of the Member States.
The vote on deforestation sanctioned a further distancing of the People’s Party from the coalition formed after the European elections with socialists and liberals, indicating a turn to the right that looks in the direction of the conservatives (Ecr), the patriots and the sovereignists. Let’s see what the next steps are and the calendar leading to the fundamental vote scheduled for the end of November for the confirmation of the EU Commission. Without the approval of the College of Commissioners, the European Union risks remaining in limbo on a legislative and governance level.
Who are the postponed commissioners
The two weeks from 4 to 12 November in which the commissioners’ hearings took place in Brussels gave a positive outcome towards von der Leyen’s team, but only in terms of numbers. Things went decidedly less well in terms of the “quality” of the approved candidates. The green light from MEPs has arrived for 19 of the 26 commissioners indicated by von der Leyen. The parliamentary commissions, called to decide on the individual commissioners, however postponed decisions on the most important positions: the vice president Teresa Ribera, the executive vice presidents Raffaele Fitto, Roxana Mînzatu, Stéphane Séjourné, and Henna Virkkunen, as well as Kaja Kallas, to whom would have the role of High Diplomatic Representative of the EU.
Von der Leyen risks jumping: what’s behind the dispute between right and left in the EU
Added to the list is Olivér Várhelyi, the Hungarian commissioner designated for Animal Health and Welfare, in the eye of the storm for being a nomination made by Viktor Orban. After the failed agreement, the result of the crossfire between the People’s Party and the Socialists, the President of the Commission called a meeting with the leaders of the main political groups who should support her. Manfred Weber of the European People’s Party (the same as von der Leyen), Iratxe García Perez of the socialists (S&D) and Valérie Hayer for the liberals of Renew. An unsuccessful meeting that did not calm the troubled waters of Brussels.
How EU commissioners can still be approved
The seven commissioners who have not passed the hearings so far have two paths ahead. The first is that of a late approval by the respective parliamentary commissions called to express their opinion on their appointment. Normally, the consent of two thirds of the members of these commissions is required, but if this does not happen, the designated commissioners could be subjected to a secret vote, for which a simple majority is required.
This is a risky way to pass the exam. The commissioners could bypass clashes between relevant political groups, but their fate would end up in the hands of individual MEPs. Fitto and Várhelyi, for example, could pass thanks to the compact votes of the People’s Party, with the support of the entire spectrum of the right (Ecr, Patriots and Europe of Sovereign Nations), with possible support also from the liberals. The most at risk would remain the Spanish Ribera, who could lack the indispensable support of the EPP.
Important dates for the European Commission
In this context, a first possible key date is 20 November, when the group leaders of all political parties (CoP) should meet again behind closed doors to decide whether or not to close the procedure and pave the way for the vote of confidence during the November plenary.
That same day, the Spanish vice-premier Teresa Ribera, candidate for the vice-presidency with responsibility for a green, just and competitive transition, will appear before the Spanish parliament to answer questions about her role as minister of the ecological transition during the floods in Valencia, which in recent weeks have caused over 200 deaths.
Manfred Weber’s EPP has placed the outcome of this discussion as a fundamental requirement for proceeding with the approval of the Spanish vice president. The confrontation between Ribera and the Iberian deputies is unlikely to calm the minds of the People’s Party, who have already attacked her harshly during her hearing in the European capital.
The vote on the College of Commissioners in Strasbourg
Even if the individual commissions give the green light to their relevant commissioners, the November 27th vote scheduled for the entire College of Commissioners still remains. The President of the European Parliament, the Maltese Roberta Metsola, is working tirelessly to ensure that it has a positive outcome, to make a success of a plenary session in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should also participate. Sending the signal of a strong Europe is essential following the election of Donald Trump to the White House.
If a majority of lawmakers give the Commission the green light, official work on von der Leyen’s new team will begin on December 1 as scheduled. On the contrary, close negotiations should restart to identify new names, shared with the heads of state, to be included alongside the German leader. At that point the start of work would be postponed to 2025, leaving the EU in limbo.
