Every constitutional referendum reserves its surprises, and this one on justice does not betray the custom: in defiance of all the polls and pollsters who are also candidates to enter the gallery of the defeated. The first surprise is the turnout, which everyone predicted would be low and instead reached unexpected levels even just last Friday. The second is obviously the result, with the No, and therefore essentially the front gathered around the Campo Largo at heights that no one had imagined.

When No was 15 points behind

Let’s take into account that at the beginning of the electoral campaign the No was far behind, even 10-15 points, and that part of the opposition (Action and other bushes of the former Third Pole) supported the Yes together with the government front. It should also be added that the subject was one in which in theory the majority of Italians had an idea that was not contrary to the spirit of the reform: given that for years all the polls (for what they are worth) explained that the judiciary is among the institutions of the State the one that receives the least sympathy.

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Also given the complexity of the topic, everything essentially leads us to maintain that the vote was essentially political, that is, for or against the government and in particular for or against the prime minister. In this case more against than pro.

What influenced the Italians’ vote

But what played a role in the Italians’ vote? Why did they give a resounding mockery to a government and a prime minister that all the polls (always them) so far had shown to be healthy, with approval for the Prime Minister and for the main coalition party stable at around 28 percent?

There are many reasons and one does not prevail more than the other. Since the gap between Yes and No is so wide and it wasn’t just one that counted. Giorgia Meloni is certainly paying for the Trump-fuel effect, i.e. the support given in recent months to a president of the United States, a leader with approval ratings already below his heels in America, let alone in Italy. The de facto membership of the Board of Peace, the “I do not approve and do not condemn” the bombings in Iran, have certainly alienated the prime minister from some of the sympathy she had enjoyed until now, even from the more moderate sections of the population.

Dear petrol, the burden of the price of energy

If we then consider that Trump’s action caused a sharp increase in fuel prices, endorsements for Trump have turned into the kiss of death, given that the effects of the unexpected and senseless American action (in the photo above, the bombing of an oil tanker) have had repercussions on everyone’s pockets. In recent days Giorgia Meloni has taken action by distancing herself a little from the USA, but by now the omelette was done.

But Trump wasn’t the only reason for the blow. The other underlying reason was that of not being able to react with valid arguments to the No campaign which accused the government of wanting to “force the Constitution”, “subjugate the judges to the government”, in essence of aiming for “full powers” to take everything, “even the President of the Republic”. This is an essentially conservative country, which by tradition and culture does not like centralized management of power, has never tolerated “strong men” or those who pretended to be strong, and instead accepts surrendering to a “diffuse” power, broken up even at the cost of being ineffective or inefficient, and let us remember how the Christian Democrats and Communists have interpreted it for years in their respective roles and positions (central or local), governing but never giving the impression of wanting to command.

The slips of Carlo Nordio and Giusi Bartolozzi

The key word of the first republic was in fact consociativism, where we pretended to argue in the streets but then shared everything, from RAI to the Regions to appointments in state companies, and it is no coincidence that it lasted so long and that many regret it. It is a country that is therefore very sensitive to the calls of those who say “hands off the Constitution”, which in itself means nothing but electorally it works, of those who go to the streets to shout that the government wants to eliminate controls because it wants to act outside the controls.

The last aspect that certainly penalized the government was the bad performance of some of the faces of the reform itself, a fool especially because they were negatively functional to the opposition’s narrative. Giusi Bartolozzi’s sudden statement according to which with the Yes “we’ll get the magistrates away” and Minister Carlo Nordio’s innumerable blunders about the “parafioso” CSM were not simple gaffes, already very dangerous, but they helped the others to construct a narrative that was functional to their slogans.

Why Giorgia Meloni lost the referendum

From today a new chapter in Italian politics opens. Giorgia Meloni will have to reflect on the mistakes made, even if she will hardly back down from her intention to present a new electoral law. The center-left won by playing its joker, what it does best, i.e. the “all against one” effect, the CNL syndrome, the fascism alarm or similar. But certainly building an alliance and a convincing program to win the elections instead of the center right is another thing.

Read the other editorials by Pierfrancesco De Robertis